By Jay McIntyre: While this Saturday’s fight between Mike Alvarado (34-2, 23 KO’s) and Ruslan Provodnikov (23-2, 16 KO’s) was indeed a display of courage under fire, I couldn’t help but revise my earlier prediction (Mike Alvarado by decision) by the end of the first round. I know that it was a hasty reassessment, but in this case it proved to be a valid one.
Going into the fight I saw Mike Alvarado as having three variables favouring him. To begin with, he was fighting not only in his home state, but with the familiar advantages of training at the ‘mile high’ elevation and then fighting there as well. Secondly, Alvarado, if he intended to box, would have a staggering six inch reach advantage. Lastly, there was the noticeable absence of Freddie Roach from Ruslan’s corner (even though a capable replacement was deputized for the role).
Apparently, none of that mattered, and I realize this in retrospect because of two things. First of all, styles make fights. I truly believe we saw one of the best versions of Mike Alvarado in the ring, but Ruslan’s thudding shots and indefatigable pressure proved to be his kryptonite. The other reason is that game plans – when tailored to suit the strengths of your fighter, and to neutralize the advantages of your opponent – can make the fight something of a foregone conclusion.
Nearly half way through the first round Ruslan landed one of his stinging overhand rights (a shot that has found Alvarado often enough in the past because he lingers in the pocket longer than he ought to). In spite of what should have been a wake up call and a determination to wage a mobile war, Alvarado opted to remain relatively static and trade punches with his adversary.
While most of the rounds went to Provodnikov, when Alvarado was moving and throwing straight punches he was largely safe from any harm. Had Alvarado maintained this tactic and not tried to slug with a slugger, he could have forced the fight to go to decision and at least saved himself from substantial damage. However, the emerging theme of the fight was Alvarado slowing down – albeit gradually – and then becoming stranded in the pocket through either fatigue or personal choice. Was his game plan to box, and then pick power shots on the inside? I do not know. Perhaps his game plan was flawed, or his innate desire to get into a shootout with his opponent took over. Either way, Mike Alvarado lost.
Provodnikov, by contrast brought the absolute best version of himself into the ring and staunchly adhered to a game plan with decisive results. Utilizing head movement to diminish the effects of Alvarado’s jab, Provodnikov was able to cut of the ring reasonably well and keep Alvarado moving for the entire fight. His head movement, by the way, was a subtle but very important factor in keeping the initiative away from Alvarado, and allowing Provodnikov to march him down with impunity. When Alvarado chose to stop moving, Provodnikov’s patient, methodical approach was unfurled in blast of sharp combination punching to the head and the body. The effects were staggering. Rarely did Provodnikov deviate from the prescribed method for success – cut off the ring, get inside, punish with a patient release of hooks and uppercuts. The relentless grinding pressure no doubt wore out Mike Alvarado mentally and physically, but to fight like this is precisely what Ruslan Provodnikov does – and to indulge him is to court disaster.
Perhaps Alvarado didn’t have the gas tank to box on the outside for 12 rounds. Perhaps the head movement of Provodnikov discouraged him from throwing those much needed straight shots. Perhaps, stylistically, Ruslan Provodnikov was just a terrible match-up for Mike Alvarado. I believe the result was a combination of all three variables and it all goes back to my two beliefs – that styles make fights, and that opponent-specific game plans are vital. Mike Alvarado will always fight the way that he fights. Ruslan Provodnikov is a highly aggressive stalker in the ring. As the old adage goes “a leopard cannot change it’s spots” and because of this there could not have been a different outcome.
Fights like this are always bittersweet because my happiness for one, is deflated by the remorse for the other. However it is important to consider them as we await future fights. Looking toward the impending match between Brandon Rios (31-1-1, 23 KO’s) and Manny Pacquiao (54-5-2, 38 KO’s) on November 24th I expect that if the best of both men show up, the best of Brandon Rios will not be enough.
Comments are closed.