By Mr. Pennington: I don’t think Saul “Canelo” Alvarez will be using Oscar’s infamous blueprint this Saturday against Floyd Mayweather Jr. I think Canelo may barrow part of it, but I don’t see him using the constant attack that Oscar did. Keep in mind Oscar was a jabber his whole career, Canelo is more of a boxer puncher. By judging the on goings in Canelo training, he has reiterated several times that he liked how Cotto fought Mayweather.
We also seen team Canelo watching the Mayweather Cotto fight in episode 3 of all access. These slight indications lead me to believe the approach will be more methodic than chaotic.
I think Canelo will use the jab more than he has before, but it won’t be his weapon of choice. I can see Canelo wanting to be patient, and not be rushed into attacking in a fashion that doesn’t come naturally to him. Canelo has by now studied Mayweathers every movement, by the brief footage in training, it appears to me as if Canelo is planning on countering the right hands that are sure to come.
Another thing I noticed in the training footage is team Canelo is putting work into his reflexes and quickness. You seen Canelo working with resistance straps, mainly the right hand, I believe in preparation to counter over the top of Floyd’s right hand. This is to me a very interesting strategy; I can’t remember the last fighter that planned on out countering Floyd, but I think this could be a brilliant strategy.
If, and this is big if, Canelo does have the hand speed to counter the lead right, that alone can almost disarm Mayweather. The lead right for Mayweather is like a stick to keep you at bay, fighters seem to just eat the punch with nothing in return. But what if you can make Mayweather think twice about throwing that right hand.
Mayweather also uses the lead right hand to dictate pace, which he needs more than anything else. Mayweather is a rhythm fighter; he has always fought at the same exact pace, sure he use to move a bit faster but has always had the same pace of fighting. If you can make Mayweather fight faster than he would like you can rattle him, but like Floyd says “I always dictate pace”. If you can control the pace you greatly increase your odds of winning the fight, but you can’t get reckless like Victor Ortiz.
This is what I anticipate happening come Saturday night, the element of hand speed in my eyes will be the deciding factor. It’s not that Canelo needs to match Mayweather in hand speed, it’s that he needs to be able to time it as he did versus Austin Trout. If he can do that we will have a very interesting fight, but if he can’t, he will be the 45th guy to say “man, I was barely missing him all night”.
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