By Dan Ambrose: It’s not looking like a winnable fight for WBA/WBC junior middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KO’s) in his match-up against Floyd Mayweather Jr. (44-0, 26 KO’s) on September 14th in their Showtime televised pay per view bout. Trainer Jessie Reid sees Canelo in a tough situation where he lacks the experience, as well as the boxing ability to win this fight against Mayweather.
Reid believes Canelo has pretty much only one chance of winning, and that’s if he takes the fight to Mayweather in an aggressive manner to rough him up.
Reid said in an interview with esnewsreporting.com: “He’s [Canelo] got a puncher’s chance. I think Canelo’s got to be very aggressive, and punch into Mayweather’s hands, and kill his hands and kills his punches. I think Canelo has got to go at him and get nasty, and if he does that he has a better chance than if he tries to box with him [Mayweather]. He’s going to get taken apart.”
I’ve seen Canelo fight like this before in the past, but only for short periods of time before turning red in the fast, and needing rest breaks. I don’t think Canelo can fight hard enough to rough Mayweather up to get a decision win. It would take an extraordinary amount of stamina from Canelo to beat Mayweather by a decision, and with his tank-like body, I don’t see it happening.
Canelo’s already going to have problems as it is with the fight taking place 152 instead of 154. That’s going to make Canelo’s boiling down from super middleweight and/or light heavyweight that much harder for him.
Canelo weighed 172 for his last fight against Trout, and he often fights in the mid-160s. Canelo will have to drain down 2 extra pounds to make the fight weight, and that’s not going to help his stamina.
Reid’s advice would work well if Canelo could fight hard for 3 minutes of every round, and if he wasn’t so flat-footed. But the simple face of the matter is, Canelo is a flat-footed fighter in the Robert Guerrero mold, and he simply not appear to be capable of fighting hard for 3 minutes of every round without taking long rest breaks.
The only way that Canelo beats Mayweather is if he knocks him out, and for Canelo to do that, he’ll have to be able to throw punches for 3 minutes of every round instead of just 45 seconds to 1 minute.
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