(Photo credit: Hogan Photos) By Babatis Banda: Honestly speaking, WBA/WBC junior middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KO’s) stands a remote chance of causing an upset of Floyd Mayweather Jr. (44-0, 26 KO’s) on 14th September at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Forget about all the bravado, the talk of size and power. Forget about all the hype Oscar is bringing to this match, it is all pure hype. There is really a good barometer here. Canelo’s performance against Austin was really ordinary and a measure of who Canelo really is.
There was nothing hair- rising about how hard Canelo punches or fights in that bout. Trout is not in the same grade with Mayweather. I am sorry to say, Canelo was very lucky with the judges in the Trout fight and he never imposed his dominance over the slower, stiffer and one dimensional Austin Trout.
Trout was being hit with punches he shouldn’t have. Trout failed to capitalize on a lot of mistakes Canelo is fond of making. Sometimes Canelo throws wide punches from a distance and that is where Floyd will catch him. Floyd will move side to side, using his left ‘check-hook’ to get out of trouble when cornered. Canelo hits hard for sure, but his punches are easy to read. Floyd will make him miss and I see Canelo switching into survival mode in the latter rounds because of too many straight right hands.
Canelo will only hit Floyd if he decides to fight a toe to toe battle, but Floyd is not stupid, he knows Canelo gets the chance of unloading combinations only when a fighter is cornered or stands in front of him. He also knows that Canelo is bigger and a toe to toe battle in this case, would be purely stupidity.
Size will not be an issue for Mayweather. I say this because if it was, Mayweather could have asked for a rehydration clause to limit the weight Canelo will come in at. The answer is in movement and speed. Watching the Canelo/Trout fight, I can safely tell you all, that hopes of Canelo stopping Mayweather are just preposterous.
To be honest, Pacquiao possess more danger to Floyd than Canelo does simply by the sheer work rate and conditioning. Pacquiao would purely lose on a technical deficiency basis and not because he would be out-worked or because he gassed out. I actually see size being Canelo’s second enemy after Mayweather.
There are only three things that are making this fight a big anticipated event. 1. Canelo represents hopes of a nation. 2. Canelo only has one thing; a puncher’s chance and high hopes have been invested in this thought 3. Mayweather is the biggest boxing star, watching him fight is always a blessing. We can argue and make all kinds of assessment, but really the likely truth is that Canelo stands a very small chance of upsetting Mayweather.
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