By Ahad Khan: The question on everyone’s mind leading up to their pay-per-view megafight on September 14 will be: Can Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 31 KOs) crack what Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. (44-0, 26 KO), has called “The Money Code?” The Money Code is, in other words, Mayweather’s famous defensive riddle that has thus far eluded all 44 fighters who have tried. Will Canelo be able to accomplish what no other fighter has been able to and either knock out Mayweather or win enough rounds to out-point him? This is what Canelo will have to do in order to remove the zero from Mayweather’s loss column.
Although Canelo has knockout power, a knockout against the pound-for-pound king seems unlikely. In order to win to put Mayweather in any danger of losing, Canelo will have to accomplish several things. The first hurdle will take place outside of the ring and before the fight even takes place. Like several of Mayweather’s recent opponents (Robert Guerrero, Victor Ortiz), Canelo has never been in a fight of this magnitude. The pay-per-view lights are brighter, the media demands are greater, and the microscope Canelo gets put under for the next few months will be far larger than anything he has experienced before. Canelo has to train for the fight of his life in an atmosphere where distractions will occur daily. On top of all this, Mayweather is notorious for doing everything in his power to get inside the minds of his opponents before big fights. With the long press tour coming soon, Mayweather should have plenty of opportunities to do so. Canelo can’t buy into it, and from what I’ve seen of him so far, chances are he won’t. Miguel Cotto took a humble and business-like approach to his fight against Mayweather and it is probably best for Canelo to do the same. There will be enough work to prepare for inside the ring without wasting time on matters occurring outside of it.
I do not think Canelo will have a relatively large amount of trouble making weight, as the fight is occurring at a catchweight of 152 instead of the light middleweight standard 154, at which Canelo fought Austin Trout in April and Mayweather fought Cotto in 2012. It will be interesting to see if Canelo balloons to 170+ pounds again for this fight or we see a different result considering the lighter Mayweather and the 152 pound weigh-in limit. I am personally surprised that a 152 pound catchweight agreement was reached with apparently no rehydration limit, after The Money Team initially expressed some hesitancy about the size differential between the two fighters. At any rate, there should be a palpable size difference between the two boxers on fight night, one that will be easily observed from anywhere inside the MGM Grand on September 14.
With that being said, Canelo’s second objective should be to get off to a fast start. Mayweather has claimed that he does not prepare for fighters; he prepares for fights. Nonetheless, his incredible ability to adjust to a fighter’s style and strengths in just a few rounds has kept him undefeated. If Mayweather does need an adjusting period to Canelo’s size and power, Canelo has to take full advantage of this time, likely the first two or three rounds of the fight. Canelo usually sizes up his opponent himself in the first round and gifts the round to the other fighter. He has to pressure Mayweather in the first few rounds and do anything he can to make Floyd uncomfortable.
When Floyd adjusts, as he most certainly will, it will be more difficult to find Mayweather, much less connect on him cleanly. I think Canelo has underrated speed and accuracy and I think this will make a difference in the fight. If you can get Mayweather on the ropes, it is not effective to swing wildly at his head. You won’t touch him. The more effective strategy is to throw well-placed blows to the body. Against his previous opponents, although none as talented defensively as Mayweather, Canelo has done good work with his opponent on the ropes. He will have to land on Mayweather against the ropes as much as possbile because Mayweather is extremely difficult to tag in the center of the ring.
If Canelo is somehow still in the fight on the scorecards heading into the championship rounds, and Las Vegas judges tend to give close rounds to Mayweather anyway because of his excellent punch stats (both for and against), he will have to have something left in the tank. Mayweather’s stamina is legendary, while Canelo’s stamina has taken a lot of criticism, including from the late, great announcer Emanuel Steward. Canelo cannot take parts of rounds off, much less whole rounds off, and expect to win the fight. Furthermore, he will have to have plenty left in the tank by the end of the fight after constantly stalking and chasing Mayweather around the ring for several rounds. If Canelo hasn’t been able to wear down Mayweather by the tenth round, he won’t do it at this point. I don’t think Canelo’s stamina will hold up. He will have his moments in the fight, particularly using precision punching while Mayweather is against the ropes, but Mayweather will take the last few rounds and win a comfortabe unanimous decision while retaining the WBA (Super) Light Middleweight title and taking Canelo’s WBC strap.
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