By Mohummad Humza Elahi: Twitter – @MHE_1985 – Tonight, I’ll be sitting in the cheap seats at a packed O2 Arena in London to witness the biggest fight (on these shores) of the year so far. Carl “The Cobra” Froch (30-2-22 KO’s) the hometown favourite will square off against “The Viking Warrior” Mikkel Kessler (46-2, 32 KO’s0).
There’s anticipation of a real classic in the making; I’ve been following the opinions out there and it seems that the majority are going for Froch in a home decision win whereas the rest think Kessler will take the victory and if that happens, I can imagine his hand being raised in a sea of boos (and probably booze) from the crowd. Atmospheres here (and in other parts of Europe) can be very intimidating for boxers not used to fighting on the road, however, this isn’t a factor for Kessler.
The Viking Warrior has the mental fortitude to withstand such abuse and will likely use the noise to fuel his aggression. The Cobra will be attempting to do the same as well, using the reverberations in the closed arena to lift his game and avenge the first defeat on his record. Incidentally, Andre Ward will be ringside and I imagine looking with focus and interest, the odds are quite short on the winner of this bout facing him in the autumn.
Who would he like to face? A good question, but right now our attention, along with boxing fans around the world, is only focused on the two gloved men in the ring at the first bell. Tactical Caution: Rematches are not always classics; particularly if it’s a close fought battle, each fighter’s memory of the first bout will affect how they’ve prepared for this. Kessler will prefer a slower opening, the jab was crucial in the first fight and he will look to establish this early even if it means throwing single shots to establish range before moving out.
The mistake Kessler made previously was he let Froch punch in bunches when he wanted to. This time out, he needs to connect and really keep Froch at arm’s length. Ring generalship is what Kessler wants in order to build a points lead early. Froch on the other hand wants anything but a slow start. He must’ve cursed himself for not having a higher work rate in the early rounds last time, instead relying on pot shots from the outside to try and catch the judge’s eye. Not now.
Froch could literally be chasing Kessler around the ring, attempting to smother him with shots to a baying crowd. I can’t see Kessler crumbling in the manner Bute did and so he’s going to spoiling and pushing Froch off him. Froch has a big weakness in the fact that he relies so heavily on his chin and reflexes to get out of trouble. I think he lost close rounds by simply letting Kessler throw 2s and 3s and using his head, not even his feet, to get out the way. But can Froch do anything else? He’s unorthodox and strong, any early changes may dissolve away and he’ll revert to type late on.
Punishing Pace: VERY important. I don’t think either has the stamina to press the other for 12 rounds, in which case we could see a great ebb and flow to the fight. Kessler finished the stronger of the two in Denmark, but will Froch’s high tempo wear away at him if he starts early? Kessler may be slightly worried about the cut he suffered last time and if I was Froch, I’d be aiming for the right eye with jabs any chance I could. Each will have to find the smallest of advantages to try and get the win. If there are early fireworks, I’m expecting a saggy middle stanza as the early energy drains and both will try and conserve it for the championship rounds. It’s here, between rounds 5 and 8 where I believe both are at their most vulnerable.
If there’s an unexpected KO, it’ll happen when one blinks or hesitates for a second and a knockdown will come from lethargy rather than brute power. If it goes past round 8, then this is where each will try and pull the other into a firefight. Strangely, I believe a war benefits Kessler in the later rounds more than it does Froch, cut or no cut.
As Froch tires, his hands will literally be at his sides and if Kessler can put combos together, Froch is there to be found. Not that Froch will mind particularly. One criticism I do have of Froch is that when his opponent becomes more open, he tends to throw wild and misses great opportunities to put his man away. It worked against Taylor, it won’t work here.
Intangibles: Rachel Cordingley.
The Winner: As much as I would love Froch to win being a Brit, I can’t see him winning unless Kessler receives some punishing damage (unlikely) or sustains a cut so bad his corner or the doctor stops the contest. My reason is that simply, Froch will not tighten his defence at the expense of fewer angles to throw punches or being less entertaining. Froch will need to become very technical and box if he wants to win but it is not in his nature. Someone always has your number and Kessler is that man. “The Viking Warrior” Mikkel Kessler to win by UD!
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