By Dallas Orysiuk: There is no doubt that a fight between Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez would be huge, especially on the weekend of Mexican Independence Day on September 14th. Alvarez is undefeated with a record of 42-0-1 (30 KOs) meanwhile Mayweather holds an undefeated record of 44-0-0 (26 KOs) against far greater opposition.
Floyd Mayweather has beaten the likes of Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Juan Manuel Marquez, Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, Diego Corrales, Arturo Gatti, and Robert Guerrero to name a few. Meanwhile Alvarez has been pampered up until his previous fight, fighting tomato cans, cab drivers, blown up welterweights and fighters well past their prime.
In his most recent victory, Canelo impressed fans by giving Austin Trout his first loss.
There is no need to discuss Floyd Mayweathers skills; he is arguably the most skilled boxer currently boxing. Saul Alvarez has shown tremendous talent, with his power, timing, and combination punching, but has been shown to have issues with stamina, footwork and a low punch output.
The fight could generate enormous amounts of revenue, but I can’t help but think that September may be too soon. If the fight were to be put on hold and both fighters were to remain undefeated, imagine the hype and revenue it could generate in 2014. And is Saul Alvarez really ready to step into the ring with Floyd “Money” Mayweather?
Both fighters are undefeated, and although Floyd resume speaks for itself, there is no question that the undefeated record is part of Mayweathers image. Along with his villain persona, the undefeated record is a major selling point of Floyd Mayweather.
Alvarez has the Mexican backing and the red hair, but his undefeated record plays a huge role in his popularity. So when these two meet in the ring, someone’s 0 has to go. From Golden Boy’s perspective, is the revenue generated worth the blemish on one of the fighters records? Alvarez is Golden Boy’s star and cash cow. Mayweather events are co-promoted by Mayweather and Golden Boy Promotions, and there is no question that every time Floyd fights, Oscar’s pockets get filled.
Mayweather winning a one-sided UD
The most likely scenario to occur is a unanimous decision for Floyd in a one-sided beat down. Like most of Mayweathers fights, if Alvarez and Mayweather square off, I see a pretty boring and one-sided decision. Alvarez has terrible footwork and I expect Floyd to use his superior defense with Canelo plodding around the ring chasing after him looking for one big shot. You can expect very few punches thrown from either fighter, however all of Alvarez’s thrown with bad intentions and Mayweather’s being crisp and accurate. Once all is said and done, Alvarez will now have a blemish on his record. A record of 42-1-1 doesn’t look so good anymore, especially when you only have one good win that wasn’t a very decisive. What will this do for Alvarez? You can forget any future pay per views, at least until he strings together a few nice wins. This is likely what will happen, and if they fight, I foresee the Canelo hype train being derailed.
Mayweather winning a close decision
There is a slight chance that Mayweather wins a close decision where both fighters share their moments. This is probably the best case scenario for Golden Boy. Mayweather still remains undefeated, Alvarez has a learning experience, and both fighters still maintain their hype. This could happen if Alvarez tags Mayweather early like Mosley did. I do see this occurring, but Floyd will likely adjust after a few rounds and beat Alvarez easily.
However, maybe Alvarez’s size and power may play a role in the fight, giving both fighters their moments. This is the best case scenario for Golden Boy and many fans. If Alvarez gives Floyd a good fight then the 42-1-1 record will not look too bad. If this occurs, the Canelo name will still carry weight and he will continue to be a major draw.
Alvarez Knocking out Mayweather
The only way Alvarez can beat Mayweather is if he knocks him out. I don’t see Alvarez winning a decision; Mayweather is a far superior boxer. But Alvarez has power, and will likely outweigh Floyd by close to 20 lbs on fight night. Floyd was caught by Mosley, but after he caught him, Mosley couldn’t pull the trigger and get the job done. Alvarez is 22 and although he is lacking in the stamina department, being so young and possessing a strong killer instinct, Alvarez might be able to go in for the kill and finish the job.
I don’t see this happening, but there is a slight possibility. But if it does, what does this mean for Golden Boy and Floyd? Well we will likely see a big money rematch. But what does it do to the Mayweather brand? One of his greatest selling points, his 0, will be gone. People will say Mayweather is done, just like they do about Pacquiao since he was knocked out. The fans that pay to see Mayweather loose will stop purchasing his pay per views. Yes Floyd will still be able to fight and draw big numbers, but the numbers will not nearly be as great as they were before the KO. Golden Boy makes money when Floyd fights, and for the remaining 4 fights left on his contract, they will make a lot less. But a new star will be born… the one who knocked out Mayweather… Canelo Alvarez. This will be good for Golden Boy in the long run because Alvarez stock will sky rocket, but for Floyds next 4 fights, his stock will dwindle and Golden Boy, Mayweather and Showtime will make a lot less money.
Conclusion
Alvarez will likely get his lucky ticket to the Floyd Mayweather lottery in September, but you never know, Floyd could hit us with a fast ball. I think the fight could do bigger numbers and generate enormous hype in 2014, but Mayweather is running out of credible opponents.
When they do fight, I see scenario 1 playing out. Mayweather will win a one sided unanimous decision. The fight will probably generate around 1.3 million pay per view buys, and the fans will be disappointed in the end… especially the loyal Alvarez ones. Alvarez may have his moments when he catches Floyd with a big shot, but Floyd will adjust. Alvarez will look slow, his terrible footwork will be exposed and again he will gas out by the sixth round. After this, Alvarez won’t be on a pay per view for a while, unless they throw him in with Miguel Cotto, which will do subpar numbers. But otherwise the Canelo hype train will come to a halt.
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