(Photos Courtesy HBO/Will Hart) By Scott Gilfoid: Let’s get this straight right away: Challenger Martin Murray (25-0-1, 11 KO’s) doesn’t have much of a chance of beating WBC middleweight champion Sergio Martinez (50-2-2, 28 KO’s) in their fight this Saturday night at the Club Atlético Vélez Sarsfield, Buenos Aires, Distrito Federal, Argentina.
Murray won’t be able to beat the 38-year-old Martinez by running around on the outside like his fellow countrymen Darren Barker and Matthew Macklin tried to do to beat Martinez. It was a total failure with Martinez stopping both of the fighters. Those two fighters wasted any chance they had in winning the fight by fighting defensively instead of making Martinez work hard by pressuring him to show his aging skills.
Those two fighters had an advantage that the 30-year-old Murray doesn’t have and that’s in the power department. Murray can pressure Martinez but without power, he’s going to be in for a lot of pain. That doesn’t mean that Murray can’t win. It’s possible that he could wear Martinez down and earn a decision, but it’s just not likely.
Murray will have to eat a ton of hard punches for him to wear Martinez down, and I just can’t see Murray being able to take those heavy shots without going down or getting punished badly enough to where he’ll have to go in the survival mode in order to end the fight in a standing position.
Martinez said “There is no doubt in my mind that this fight is going to end by knockout. My training for this fight has been the best I have ever had and my confidence is at the absolute highest level, and for that reason I guarantee this fight will end with a knockout on Saturday night.”
Martinez is the home fighter for this fight, and that’s going to make him fight at a much higher level than what he’s been fighting, as if he needs an advantage. Murray will have to possess a good chin on Saturday for him to take the big shots. He doesn’t have the sheer bulk that Martinez’s last opponent Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. had going for him.
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