By Chris Williams: Bob Arum needs to think hard about the possible outcome of putting his top cash cow Manny Pacquiao in a fight with Juan Manuel Marquez in September in Mexico City, Mexico. I don’t think Arum quite realizes what a huge gift he’s giving Marquez by putting the fight in Mexico.
Arum just thinking about the huge amount of taxes he can safe Pacquiao and Marquez by staging the fight there, but I don’t think he realizes how much of a benefit this is going to be for Marquez to be able to fight in front of a crowd that will likely almost all Mexican.
I’m sure there’s going to be some Filipinos that will take the long trip to Mexico City to root for Pacquiao, but nearly enough to drown out the huge Mexican crowd that will be supporting Marquez in this fight. If you’ve seen any of Marquez’ past fights in Mexico you’ll notice that he fights really well when he’s got the crowd encouraging him, and I think this might be enough for Marquez to KO Pacquiao again and send him into retirement.
I don’t think Arum wants the gravy train to stop with this fight, and I don’t think Arum wants Pacquiao lose this one. That’s Arum’s money fighter, and a loss in this fight with be Pacquiao’s third straight loss.
That’s no good for business for Arum. That’s why I think is blowing it with his decision to stage the Pacquiao-Marquez 5 fight in Mexico. Maybe Arum doesn’t realize how huge crowds can help the home fighter. He should know now because he’s 81-years-old, and I’m sure he’s seen guys fight with a ton of adrenalin when fighting in front of a home crowd.
Before this fight was made, I was giving Pacquiao a 20% chance at avenging his loss by a close decision. However, now I’m only giving Pacquiao 10% chance. He’s not going to fight well in front of 18,000 Mexicans, and I think he’s going to run into another big right hand. Marquez will be loading up with every shot be throws, and I don’t think Pacquiao can take Marquez’s new power. He’s too strong now, and the large Mexican crowd will make Marquez even stronger. I just hope they have a good medical staff on hand just in case Pacquiao gets knocked out cold again because he may need someone to be there just in case.
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