By William Mackay: One of the dangers in draining down 20 pounds to make weight to gain an edge by smaller guys in lower divisions is that it quite often leaves the fighter too weight drained to capitalize on doing it. Sometimes it’s possible for a fighter to get away with this, but it’s not something that works consistently over time. WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (46-0-1, 32 KO’s) could be about to find out that his ability to drain down and still win won’t work for him tonight against Sergio Martinez (49-2-2, 28 KO’s) in their battle in Las Vegas, Nevada.

There’s a point where a fighter that boils down suffers diminishing returns and can no longer do it. I think we may see a clear example of that tonight with Chavez Jr. being too weak to gain an advantage against Martinez. The lack of energy and strength from having drained down 20+ pounds will very likely be the cause of Chavez Jr. losing his World Boxing Council 160 pound title.

Chavez Jr. looked incredibly drained during Friday’s weigh-in, and compared to his previous weigh-ins where he also looked skeletal, he looked far worse. What was interesting to see what how HBO analyst Max Kellerman was complimenting Chavez Jr. by saying he looked good compared to his previous weigh-ins. I couldn’t believe what I was hearing because Chavez Jr. looked wretched, like someone who had been stranded on a deserted island with nothing to eat coconuts for months. Chavez Jr. looked awful and in no way in shape to fight someone as powerful and as athletic as Sergio Martinez. The way that Chavez Jr. looked at the weigh-in he was more suited to a long rest at a dinner table than someone that will be fighting in 24 hours.

Hopefully the Chavez Jr-Martinez fight is a good one because the undercard won’t make up for it if it turns out to be a one-sided affair. There seems to have been only a half-hearted attempt by Top Rank promoter Bob Arum to assemble a good undercard because this is all you get for your $49.99 tonight besides the Chavez Jr-Martinez fight:

Robert Marroquin – Guillermo Rigondeaux
Roman Martinez – Miguel Beltran Jr
Matthew Macklin – Joachim Alcine
Willie Nelson – John Jackson
Wale Omotoso – Daniel Sostre
Michael Medina – James Winchester
Mike Lee – Paul Harness