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Pacquiao to fight Cotto or Marquez next – retreads

By Chris Williams: WBO welterweight champion Tim Bradley has pretty much been eliminated as a serious candidate for Manny Pacquiao’s next fight on November 10th by Pacquiao’s promoter Bob Arum. The field is now down to two opponents – Miguel Cotto and Juan Manuel Marquez – to get the fight against Pacquiao.

Both are retread opponents that Arum has dug up. Marquez has fought Pacquiao three times whereas Cotto once. There’s really no point in Pacquiao facing them again aside from money, because I can’t see either one of them getting a decision over him. I think they both can beat him but will they get the decision? I think not.

Arum said to “It’s all about economics.” You read that to mean that Arum wants to match Pacquiao up against the fighter that will bring the most bank. Pacquiao’s third fight against Marquez last November hauled in 1.41 million pay per view buys, and Pacquiao’s fight against Cotto in 2009 brought in 1.25 million buys.

Pacquiao’s figures for his recent loss to Bradley are either 900,000 buys or 700,000. There’s still confusion about what the true numbers are, so I’m guessing it’s the lower figure, although we’ll probably never find out for sure. It doesn’t matter what number it was, what matters is the Pacquiao-Bradley fight brought in less money than the Cotto-Pacquiao and Pacquiao-Marquez fights.

However, Arum may not be able to get the big numbers for Pacquiao’s next fight even if he does fight Marquez or Cotto, because there’s nothing new about these opponents. Pacquiao already fought Marquez three times and has won two controversial decisions over him. You’ll probably get the same thing in their fourth fight if it goes ahead, and it’s now so old that it’s not even interesting anymore.

Cotto lost his fight, so that’s not going to be a great match-up. He was soundly beaten by Pacquiao in 2009, and usually when you have finds that are as one-sided as that one was there’s no real interest in boxing fans in seeing a second fight. Arum may not get the big numbers he’s hoping for from boxing fans for Pacquiao if he trots out these old Pacquiao opponents.

Boxing fans have already seen and paid tons of money to see Pacquiao’s mismatches with Shane Mosley, Cotto and Antonio Margarito, and there just hasn’t been any real exciting fights involving him in ages. What you get is diminishing returns. Arum should have never matched Pacquiao up against 40-year-old Mosley, because that was selling a bad product – a mismatch – to boxing fans during a weak economy.

I don’t know about you but for me dumping $55 on a mismatch that was supposed to be a competitive fight turned me off. There was no value to the Pacquiao-Mosley fight, and here Arum is trotting out some more old opponents of Pacquiao expecting boxing fans to want to pay to see it again.

Would you pay to see a movie again if you knew what the outcome was going to be ahead of time? I wouldn’t. This is why I see Arum being dead wrong by choosing Marquez or Cotto for Pacquiao’s next fight. Fans have already seen it and they’re probably not going to pay big money in high numbers to see it again. Arum needs to bring in some new blood for Pacquiao, because it’s forlorn at this point to see him fighting Marquez or Cotto again.

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