By Dan Ambrose: WBA junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto (37-2, 30 KO’s) in a tough situation where he may have only one chance of beating undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr. (42-0, 26 KO’s) in their May 5th fight and that’s if Cotto can somehow hurt Mayweather with one of his big right hands and then flurry on him to finish the job. Short of that, Cotto loses the fight and loses badly.

Without the speed, boxing ability and the needed talent to win this fight, Cotto finds himself in a situation where he’s going to need to try and bulldoze Mayweather and get a stoppage if he’s to have any chance at winning this fight. No one on earth sees Cotto out-boxing Mayweather to get a decision. That’s just not going to happen unless it’s one of those East Coast jobs where Cotto wins a hometown decision. I can’t see that happening because there are too many eyeballs on this fight.

Cotto’s only chance at winning is if he can catch Mayweather with a powerful shot and then hope he’s hurt enough to where Cotto can finish it. Cotto’s stamina is such that if he were to try and flurry on Mayweather, he’d be at risk of running out of gas and getting beaten up himself. Cotto doesn’t have good stamina and if he trows too many punches he’ll gas out and Mayweather will be able to come on and get a quick stoppage.

Cotto looked fragile in his last fight against a faded Antonio Margarito last December, winning by a doctor’s stoppage in the 9th round. Cotto, however, looked to be on the verge of another collapse in the 9th, as Margarito was clearly coming on and starting to land more and more shots. That was one of those lucky stoppages for Cotto because Margarito would have been all over him in the 10th, 11th and 12th rounds. We might have seen Cotto take a knee again to escape the punishment.