By Gerardo Granados: I guess the answer to the question is money. Does boxing fans outside Mexico and the United States will be interested to watch this fight? Undoubtedly both fighters have a big fan base that might be enough to bring good revenues for the promoters of the fight.
It has been reported that Chavez Jr. and Canelo Alvarez will fight at a catch weight of 156-158 pounds next year, probably on March in Las Vegas, Nevada. If these young lions end up fighting, as I said if, because Chavez might pull out of it as he usually does, it would be the fight to set the supremacy of the Mexican TV networks, because the major network TELEVISA is behind Canelo and the second major network TV Azteca is behind Chavez Jr.
If Chavez Jr. fights his mandatory challenger (Rubio or Martinez) he would probably lost and would not get a good pay. Also it would not be a good business for promoters to risk a marketable inherit last name which even has allow Chavez Jr. to head pay per view events, so why take any unnecessary risks against Rubio, Martinez, Sturm or Pirog. If Chavez Jr. loss to Canelo maybe he would still be profitable on his next’s fights.
If Canelo fights his mandatory challenger it would be a big surprise to see him take a risky fight and he could lose the fight. But if he fights Chavez Jr. it could bring a good payday for him and the promoter; also he would kept been protected and spoon fed. Although Chavez Jr. will be huge by the night fight due rehydration, he does not have great power or speed, neither great boxing technique, so for Alvarez it would not be a high risk fight as if instead he would fight the names of Vanes, Cotto, Erislandy, Sturm, Martinez or Pirog, also if he wins he will be able to climb in the list of the top ten paper title champions.
Undoubtedly this fight will get the most attention from the Mexican and Mexican-American boxing fans, and it will guarantee that this fight will set historic ratings for the Mexican television if both networks agree to share the TV rights and it is possible that the fight could pull really good pay per view numbers in the United States. Good business for all the involved because if the promoters wait a little longer maybe both fighter wont have the same support of their loyal fans.
Obnoxious catch weight. Is it necessary? Once, Canelo’s trainer stated that they would move up to 160 to challenge junior but now it has been reported a catch weight of 157. Chavez rehydrated up to 20 pounds in his fight against Zbik and it will be his major advantage against Canelo. If the bout will be scheduled as a ten rounder then the catch weight it won’t matter but if it is scheduled to dispute the WBC middleweight title then they should weight as much as they want up to the division limit.
If the fights goes to the fight cards and it is close, a probable decision might be a draw to protect the marketability of both fighters or even to give an argument for a rematch, although a knock out victory could happen; lets not forget that if lightweight Jose Miguel Cotto hurt Alvarez, then Chavez Jr. may be able too, junior may not be a power puncher but he is a big middle with an average power. Chavez Jr. has a good chin but he has never engaged against a power puncher and his defense is bad enough to allow Canelo to land a lot of clean power punches. This could be a good fight between two unproven fighters and they would end up trying to win by all means necessary.
I believe the key for the winner will be an offense based on an effective body attack for both fighters; and as for Chavez to keep his guard tight taking advantage of his height and reach and to use his left jab to keep Canelo at bay and to use a well timed right hook when Canelo came in close; as for Canelo to box Chavez Jr. moving around him and countering him with solid right cross or hooks.
In case they would end up fighting; who do you think Rubio, Martinez, Angulo or Martirosian would pick to win?
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