By Jason Kim: Wladimir Klitschko’s old trainer Freddie Roach sees WBA heavyweight champion David Haye (25-1, 23 KO’s) as the fighter should be favored to win this fight on July 2nd because of Haye’s “Explosive power,” according to the Telegraph. Roach previously trained Wladimir for four fights years ago and is well aware of his talent and his limitations as a fighter. Roach thinks that if Haye can jump on Wladimir early, and take away his confidence, Haye can win.

In the telegraph.co.uk article, Roach said “I don’t see David Haye as the underdog in this fight…The key to beating someone [like Wladimir] that is to take away their mental confidence right away. Haye can do that with his power, but not by boxing Wlad. Haye’s the best thing for the heavyweight division right now, because he comes to fight, he comes to win, and he’s a puncher.”

Haye is like the heavyweight division’s version of Manny Pacquiao, albeit without the chin and the bold fighting style that Pacquiao has. Like Pacquiao, Haye is fighting out of his weight class and is facing bigger fighters. However, Pacquiao often weighs close to what his bigger opponents weigh because he’s put on weight and sometimes used catchweights to bring down the weight of his bigger opponents. Haye won’t have that advantage, as he’s likely going to come into his fight against Wladimir weighing between 210 to 215 lbs compared to the 245 to 247 pound Wladimir. That’s nearly 40 pounds of weight that Haye would be giving away for the Klitschko bout. It would be like Pacquiao facing Bernard Hopkins or Chad Dawson.

I like Pacquiao’s skills and all, but I don’t think he would beat Dawson or Hopkins. He might make it interesting for a while but those guys would give Pacquiao huge problems. The same goes for Haye. He’ll be giving away three to four inches in height, about the same in reach and will be facing someone with the best jab in the division. Wladimir likes to back away when his shorter opponents try to come at him, and that makes it very hard to hit him all that often. Wladimir also does a lot of clinching to shut down the offense of his opponents. Haye will have to try and find a way to defeat that if he wants to win. It may come down to what Roach is talking about. Haye might have to get to Wladimir in the first four rounds if he wants to win. Once the fight goes past four, Haye’s chances will drop because he’ll start getting hit a lot with Wladimir’s jab and the German crowd will give Wladimir a lot of encouragement each time he nails Haye.

In the end, Roach’s prediction will likely go up in smoke. Haye isn’t Pacquiao and there isn’t a catchweight in this fight to help Haye be more competitive.