Abraham-Froch & Marquez-Katsidis: Boxing betting, giving the bookmakers a black eye – Round 3

Photo Tom Casino/Showtime: by Stuart Young: After a weekend of freak boxing results, where the bookies definitely won the second round of our personal head-to-head battle, (http://www.boxingnews24.com/2010/11/boxing-betting-giving-the-bookmakers-a-black-eye-round-2/) we witnessed 12/1 rank outsider Gary Buckland claim the winners cheque in the latest Prizefighter series and Sergio Martinez’s shock second round one punch destruction of American middleweight Paul Williams with a big ‘Hail Mary’ KO.

I’m not going to hide or retreat into my shell – I’m going to ‘fight back harder’ and prove that lasts week’s results were nothing but a mere blip on our betting calendar.

This weeks action see’s the return of the innovative ‘Super 6′ tournament where Carl ‘The Cobra’ Froch (W26, L1, KO’s 20) and ‘King’ Arthur Abraham (W31, L1, KO’s 25) engage in what should be a ‘barnburner’ of a fight for the WBC world super middleweight title in the Hartwall Arena, Helsinki, Finland.

Neither of these boxers are known for their skills and finesse inside the squared circle, with this bout set to be no different we are anticipating an all action ‘slugfest’ between two strong, powerful fighters. Both boxers have high knockout ratios and are also known for their durability, with neither of them being stopped at any point in their professional careers.

The main difference, other than the height disparity between the two fighters, is that many believe Froch possesses a slightly higher work-rate than Abraham, who is a well renowned in boxing circles as slow starter who picks up his work-rate as the bout progresses, coming on strong late on in fights and forcing many stoppages.

It sounds harsh, but Froch is technically one dimensional and can only fight one way, and that’s going forward, so if Abraham manages to hold the centre of the ring and begins to force Froch onto the back foot fairly early – theirs only going to be one winner in this bout.

Abraham fights with a high ‘peak-a-boo’ guard, whereas Froch guards with his ‘kipper’ (that’s slang for face for our American readers) and virtually negates the majority of his bouts with his knuckles dragging along the canvas like a wild mountain gorilla.

This is likely to prove costly for Froch against the big-punching Armenian via Germany as Abraham’s big eye-catching shots will be landing cleanly on Froch’s chin whereas the ‘bombs’ Froch retaliates with are likely to be ‘caught’ around the gloves of Abraham allowing him to ‘ride’ the punches much better than his rival.

Let’s be honest here, in a close 50/50 bout, like this one, human nature dictates the ringside judges will side with the competitor who’s landing the crisper, cleaner, more powerful shots, so in all honesty, who do you think they will be awarding the majority of close rounds to?

That’s why I recommend you take the 4/5 available with Stan James for ‘King’ Arthur Abraham to reign supreme in this bout and win the fight outright.

Next up for analysis is the Michael ‘The Great’ Katsidis (W27, L2, 22 KO’s) Vs Juan Manaul Marquez (W51, L5, D1, 37 KO’s) bout for the WBO Lightweight title held at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada.

Many think Katsidis’ timing is perfect for this bout with him landing his big shot at the Mexican at exactly the right time, various pundits see Marquez as being well past his peak and many are expectantly awaiting the upset – I’m not one of them!

Marquez is obviously on the downward side of his career at the ripe of age of 37, but he has far too much riding on the outcome of this bout with talk of an impending third fight with P4P number one Manny Pacquiao to have been unprofessional enough to have overlooked the hard-hitting Australian.

No doubt, Katsidis is great to watch and always brings wild entertainment for us fans when he steps between the ropes, but ability wise he’s nothing more than a good pressure fighter with a excellent punch. Stopped by an ageing Joel Cassamayor in 2008 and easily outpointed by Marquez victim Juan Diaz in the same year, Katsidis gets hit too cleanly and too often in many of his bouts and routinely suffers bad cuts due to his fragile skin around his eyes.

Although aging Marquez has far too much experience, tactical nous and boxing ability for him to come undone against a slow pressure fighter like Katsidis and I personally think you may as well hook Katsidis onto a ‘swivel’ at certain points in this fight as Marquez will look to unload his punches in bunches turning Katsidis into a ‘human punchbag’ at certain points throughout the fight.

Although there is always the danger of Marquez stopping Katsidis late on in the bout or on cuts, I’m going to back the tough Aussie to use his Iron will and massive heart to stick around long enough to hear the final bell.

That’s why you should take the appealing 11/4 available that Marquez wins the bout on Points or Technical decision at Bet365.

Good luck and happy punting.

E-mail & questions to: boxingchat121@hotmail.co.uk

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