By Jim Dower: International Boxing Federation (IBF) super middleweight champion Lucian Bute (26-0, 21 KO’s) and former WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-2, 32 KO’s) could be facing each other in March at a 166 pound catch weight, according to boxing news from rds.ca. HBO is reportedly interested in showing this fight, and Interbox says that there has been an offer for the fight at 166.

Bute’s IBF super middleweight title would be on the line for the fight. Pavlik, 28, is fighting Brian Vera at a 164 pound catch weight on November 13th on the Manny Pacquiao vs. Antonio Margarito undercard at the Cowboys Stadium, in Arlington, Texas.

Depending on how well Pavlik does in that fight, he should be in good shape to take on Bute next year for the title at a catch weight. The Vera bout is clearly a big test for Pavlik. If he looks terrible at 164, then it will be hard to imagine he’ll go forward and take on an even bigger fighter like Bute at a slightly higher weight.

The Pavlik-Bute fight would also have a bout between IBF light heavyweight champion Tavoris Cloud vs. Adrian Diaconu on the undercard.

Pavlik lost his last fight to Sergio Martinez by a 12 round decision last April. Pavlik looked sluggish in that fight, and had problems dealing with Martinez’s movement, hand speed and work rate. Pavlik did well at the start of the fight but then faded badly in the last four rounds.

Despite looking bad in that bout, Pavlik is convinced that he needs to stay at middleweight. He may be kidding himself if he keeps having problems making the 160 pound middleweight limit. As for the Bute bout, it’s a fight where it would be difficult to see Pavlik winning.

Bute moves even more than Martinez, and has excellent power and good boxing skills. Pavlik will likely lose this fight by a lopsided 12 round decision and be in bad shape in terms of career options than he is now.

While Pavlik would likely get a good payday in the Bute fight, he just doesn’t appear to have the skills to match-up with the Romanian fighter.

Pavlik does well against fighters that stand and trade with him, not against fighters like Bute who hit and run for 12 rounds. This would almost surely be a loss for Pavlik unless he was able to walk Bute down and take him out with some hard right hands.

Pavlik would have to take an enormous amount of punishment for him to land that one big shot, however. Bute is vulnerable to big punchers, as we saw in his close call with Librado Andrade in 2008. However, Pavlik seems to give up in fights where he gets behind early. He may not be willing to take the kind of punishment that Andrade did and hurt Bute late in the fight.

Bute will be facing super middleweight contender Jesse Brinkley on Friday night at the Bell Centre, in Montreal, Canada. Bute is expected to easily win that fight.