Predicting the Rest of the Super Six: Dirrell-Ward, Froch-Abraham, Kessler-Green

By Joseph Hirsch: The first two rounds of the Showtime Super Six World Boxing Classic are already in the books. There have been knockouts, controversial decisions, and upsets, but there is still no clear favorite. Going into the third and final round, it really is any man’s game. The next three fights to take place will determine who will advance to the semi-finals. Before that, though, it might be appropriate to pick who will win the next fights, and by what method.

Andre Dirrell vs. Andre Ward: Both of these fighters are incredibly talented, and they have been friends ever since they were amateurs. Ward has a slightly better Olympic pedigree, and he is the only fighter thus far to win both of his matches in the tournament. Dirrell sustained a massive knockout in his last fight, but it was ruled illegal and he holds the distinction of being the only man to ever knock down “King” Arthur Abraham. The referee will be a key ingredient in this fight. Ward has been reckless with elbows and his head on occasion, and he does very well coming out of a clinch. He is talented at spoiling his opponent’s power and using smothering tactics to drain the other fighter of energy and power.

Dirrell had a rough start in the tournament, struggling to find his rhythm in a title match outside of his native country. Once he settled into his game plan, he had flashes of brilliance in the eleventh round against Froch. Dirrell only improved in his next fight, working behind a jab to neutralize Abraham’s power, and slipping punches. Unfortunately Ward is on fire at this point, and can close the distance fast enough to rob Dirrell of his greatest assets. Once on the inside, he should be able to sabotage Dirrell and neutralize his game plan. Unless the ref cautions Ward against holding, he should beat Dirrell to the punch in almost every instance.

It should be noted that this fight will probably be the least entertaining in the series. Sometimes when you get two incredibly talented fighters, you get a chess match rather than a brawl. For those who like defensive generalship, though, this should be a masterwork.

Ward by UD

Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham: Froch has a granite beard and no small bit of power. He also has a will to win. But everything good about Froch can be said about Abraham, only in spades. He has a better jaw (an iron one courtesy of Edison Miranda) and it looks like he has carried his dangerous power up from Middleweight. He is also still enraged off his first loss, and will not accept anything short of a knockout. Froch likes to fight in the center of the ring, and will not cut off the apron or show much movement. Abraham will knock him out with a single, well-placed shot

Abraham by KO

Allan Green vs. Mikkel Kessler:

Green has more power than Mikkel Kessler, but much less experience at this level. He promised before his fight with Andre Ward that no one in the tournament could beat him, yet when he got his chance he found himself paralyzed, unable to counter or even muster much defense. He allowed Ward to dictate every term of the fight and did nothing to acquit himself. Kessler has just recently reclaimed a belt, and will not relinquish it without a war. Green does not seem to have the warrior’s pedigree, despite his claims to the contrary. Kessler is not exceptional in any one area, but he is fundamentally sound. He is a very accurate puncher with fair power and speed. He does not have great combinations, but does have clean jabs and straights, and he will tattoo Green rather quickly if he shows up and remains as passive as he was against Ward. Green is a heavy puncher, and if he headhunts he might stand a chance of opening Kessler’s considerable scar tissue and gaining a TKO on cuts; but if Kessler keeps his gloves up and employs side to side movement, the night is his to take.

Kessler by UD

At this point, the scoreboard would read as follows

Andre Ward: 6
Arthur Abraham: 6
Mikkel Kessler: 4
Carl Froch: 2

Since Froch and Dirrell are tied, but Froch beat Kessler in their bout, Green and Dirrell would be terminated at this point, leaving Ward as the lone but very capable American in the tournament. At this point the 1st and 4th ranked would be pitted against one another, while the 2nd and 3rd would have to face off. Some might consider Abraham the leader at this point, since his victories had all been by way of knockout, but it would probably be more pragmatic to consider Ward the top dog, since he had not yet tasted defeat. This would make the next two bouts a semifinal featuring Andre Ward vs. Carl Froch, and Arthur Abraham vs. Mikkel Kessler.

It would be fair to give Froch the venue advantage of Nottingham, since he had only had one fight at home up until this point, while Ward had already seen two of his bouts in Oakland, California. Kessler vs. Abraham could logically take place in either Germany or Denmark, but would very possibly take place in the former, since both men have ties to promoter Wilfred Sauerland, which would limit such arguments.

Carl Froch vs. Andre Ward: As previously discussed, Froch has power, but Andre Ward has already proven that he can compete viably as high as light-heavyweight, which he did as an amateur, meaning that unlike the other fighters in the tournament who are relatively new to super-middleweight (Abraham in particular) he is comfortable with the big boys. Froch’s amateur career is nothing to laugh at, as he is a bronze medalist; but Ward is an Olympic gold holder, which is an incredibly rare achievement for an American.

Since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Americans have routinely found themselves starched as amateurs (and professional Heavyweights) by Russians and Russian satellite countries. Previously Americans had faced an uphill battle against Koreans as amateurs. Ward’s success as an Olympian cannot be undervalued. And he acquired that medal at light-heavyweight.

Froch has a brilliant shoulder defense that, as long as it is applied, will stymie any right-hander’s advance. The problem is Ward has no problem with using a southpaw stance to deliver his Sunday punch, a left hook to the jaw. Froch is most comfortable in a toe-to-toe war at a high-octane pace. Ward prefers to fight in spurts, which will play hell on Froch’s timing. Ward, like former Super-middleweight great Chris Eubank, prefers to fight out of a coil, hunkering down with a low center mass before erupting and coiling upward. Froch has never fought anyone like him, and could not even prepare since no sparring partner will provide a useful simulation

Ward by UD

Arthur Abraham vs. Mikkel Kessler: Kessler has more experience at this weight than any of the other fighters. Abraham has nearly the least, but he is settling into the division. Kessler has proved his chin against the rugged Librado Andrade and has handled the vast majority of elite contenders in his weight class. The problem is that even as the smallest middleweight, Abraham packs too much dynamite in his walloping fists. Kessler had a good guard, though it is nowhere near as impenetrable as Abraham’s shell. Mikkel leaves himself exposed when he goes into his patented one-two combinations, and Arthur will have little trouble slipping through his guard, and throwing the one that counts. If Kessler can somehow survive Abraham’s sporadic onslaughts, it’s very possible that he can eke out a decision. It’s just not probable.

Abraham by KO

At this point Kessler and Froch are no longer in contention. The board looks like this.

Abraham: 9
Ward: 8

This fight should be fought in a neutral venue, such as Monaco. Both men will have gone through three rounds of contention and a semi-final, without so much as a hello exchanged between them. The fight will open with Ward keeping a low sillouhette and fighting ultra-cautiously. Abraham will be in his shell, gaining a reading on Ward while seemingly inactive. Showtime doesn’t use Compubox statistics, but the volume of shots between the two fighters in the first three rounds should be incredibly low. There may even be sporadic pockets of booing in the crowd.

Abraham will open up in the fifth round, throwing wide and missing Ward. He may even sacrifice enough balance to find himself the victim of a flash knockdown. He’ll get up immediately and continue with his barrage, mostly missing as he is countered. Ward will vacillate between mugging inside with body work and lunging from the outside with headshots. This fight might be the least satisfying in the entire tournament, which is a shame, since it is the most crucial. In the end, it will be very close, and neither man will probably show much wear, except for a little bit of redness in the face

Ward wins by unanimous decision, clinching the coveted trophy by a margin of 11-9. I understand many people will not agree with this prediction, and I invite their input.

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