By Jim Dower: I figure that middleweight contender John Duddy (29-1, 18 KO’s) will be far too experienced and talented for unbeaten Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (41-0-1, 30 KO’s) when they do battle later on this month for the obscure vacant WBC Silver middleweight title on June 26th at the Alamodome, in San Antonio, Texas.

I see Duddy as being far too good for the 24-year-old Chavez to beat. However, I worry that Duddy may not get the decision no matter what he does in the ring on that night. San Antonio is pretty much a home town advantage for the Mexican Chavez Jr., and he’s got the much bigger name, thanks to his famous father Julio Cesar Chavez.

The audience will no doubt be almost entirely filled with Chavez Jr. fans, who will be rooting him all throughout the 12 round bout. Chavez has recently started training with Freddie Roach two months ago to try and get good enough to win a title in the junior middleweight division.

Roach is a great trainer when paired with physically talented fighters to begin with like James Toney and Manny Pacquiao, but Roach’s results are much less impressive when he’s training raw fighters who don’t have the incredible talent walking in the door. I don’t see Roach as being any factor in making Chavez Jr. any better than he was before.

In other words, I think Chavez Jr. is a good B level fighter but not someone that should be ranked in the top 15 and most certainly not a fighter that should be ranked number #1, which is what the WBC currently has Chavez Jr. ranked at this time.

The Duddy fight will be a monumental step up for Chavez Jr. because before this fight, he’s been pretty much been spoon fed with much inferior fighters. This partly explains Chavez’s inflated 41-0 record. He does have some talent but he looks really lacking in a number of different areas, especially with his stamina and defense.

What Chavez does have going for him is his name. He’s got his father’s name and that guarantees him a fairly significant sized audience every time he fights. I’ve seen several of his fights where Chavez Jr. looked like he should have lost. In his two fights with Carlos Molina, Chavez escaped with a draw and a win.

I saw Chavez losing both of those fights. And in Chavez’s first fight with Matt Vanda in 2008, he got the win by a controversial 10 round decision in Mexico. I had Vanda easily winning the fight by at least 2 rounds. The Mexican crowd, for the most part, was no happy With Chavez receiving the win, as they booed the decision loudly and some of the fans threw water bottles in the ring.

Duddy is clearly a step up from Vanda. How much of a step up isn’t quite clear but he is a better fighter in my estimation and I think he’s going to give Chavez big problems on June 26th. Duddy will turn 31 on 6/19, so he’s in the prime of his career right now. Chavez may or may not be still improving as a fighter.

I can’t tell for sure because Chavez Jr. looks like he’s been regressing as a fighter the past two years rather than improving. He’s made what should have been easy fights over the B level fighters being fed to him into really close calls. That’s not good and even Roach has his limitations in what he can do with a fighter.

Roach will obviously have Chavez using his jab more and having sit down on his punches a little more. But beyond that, Roach isn’t going to be able to block incoming shots for Chavez and he’s not going to be able to push Chavez around the ring with a wheelbarrow when Chavez starts fading in the later rounds like he always does.

If Duddy sets a high pace, then Chavez is a goner. He is only able to fight at a really slow pace in order to 10 to 12 rounds without his tongue hanging out his mouth, sweat pouring down his face in rivers and his mouth constantly wide open like an over-sized gold fish.

I really doubt Duddy will get the decision even if this fights looked terribly one-sided. He’s got too many factors going against him. Chavez will have the crowd backing him, the bigger money backing him and the more famous trainer back him and the name. That will probably mean that Duddy will have to knock Chavez out to get the win. I hope I’m wrong but that’s how I see this one playing out.