Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz = another knockout win for Marquez

By Jason Kim: On July 31st, World Boxing Organization lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez (50-5-1, 37 KO’s) and former IBF/WBA/WBO lightweight champion Juan Diaz (35-3, 17 KO’s) will go at it in a rematch at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, in Las Vegas, Nevada. Marquez and Diaz fought previously last year in February, with Marquez taking Diaz out in the 9th round with huge uppercuts.

Now both fighters are coming off losses and are looking to change their look. In the case of Diaz, he’s really struggled as of late, losing three out of my last five fights. An argument can be made that Diaz has really lost four out of his last five fights because many people feel that he lost his first fight with Paulie Malignaggi in August 2009. Diaz won the fight by a 12 round unanimous decision while fighting in his hometown of Houston, Texas.

The Marquez-Diaz rematch is one of those weird situations where two fighters are fighting again when they really have no point in fighting again because of the conclusion of their first fight. It’s not that Marquez was dominating Diaz the entire fight, because it was from that. Marquez had some problems against Diaz in the early going of their fight. However, once Marquez discovered that Diaz had no answers for an uppercut, the fight was as good as over. Marquez went to that punch over and over again and Diaz had no clue what to do.

He took the shots every time until finally he was dropped and counted out in the 9th round. I imagine that Diaz has been working hard recently trying to defend against them, but it remains to be seen if he’s learned enough to keep an experienced fighter like Marquez from hitting him with them. Diaz’s best assets – his work rate and power – are pretty much nullified by the counter punching ability from Marquez. He took Diaz’s shots and fired back frequently with harder shots to give Diaz problems in their initial encounter.

Diaz really has no other option in their rematch but to continue to throw a lot of punches like he usually does in his fights. That’s how Diaz wins and if he tried to fight on the outside, then his goose is cooked. Diaz doesn’t have long enough arms to fight Marquez on the outside and will have to come in at him. And if he throws fewer punchers, he’ll still get countered by Marquez and likely outworked by him. Basically, the only way for Diaz to win is if he goes to war with Marquez and is able to somehow outwork him.

At 26, Diaz is 10 years younger than Marquez, and this might be enough for him to outwork him. Marquez looked bad in his last fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr. Maybe Marquez has aged enough for Diaz to beat him this time. We’ll see on July 31st. But hopefully Diaz has figured out how to defend against an uppercut by then, because if not, he’s going to take a real pounding from Marquez.

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