Cotto has to beat Foreman to keep alive his rematch hopes against Pacquiao

By Chris Williams: Miguel Cotto (34-2, 27 KO’s) is moving up in weight to take on the little known WBA light middleweight champion Yuri Foreman (28-0, 8 KO’s) on June 5th, at the Yankee Stadium, in the Bronx, New York. Cotto, 29, is doing this to try and capture the WBA title and make himself more appealing for a rematch against Manny Pacquiao, who easily defeated Cotto by a 12th round knockout last November. The thought of a rematch between Cotto and Pacquiao is more than a little nauseating if you’re the average fan who is interested in watching a competitive fight.

However, Top Rank promoter Bob Arum sees the appeal in the fight with the huge fan bases of these two fighters, and will likely move ahead to set this fight up if Cotto can beat Foreman next week on June 5th and if Pacquiao doesn’t take on undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr. next. Even if Pacquiao does fight Mayweather next, my guess is Arum will be able to persuade Pacquiao to come back for another fight against Cotto. If Cotto-Pacquiao II fight does take place, don’t expect the fight to be any more competitive than the first fight.

Pacquiao pretty much established that he was the much superior fighter in that bout and Cotto will be extremely lucky to see the 12th round in a rematch. The problem is that Arum wants the Cotto-Pacquiao rematch to happen and he’s not likely to steer away from this fight to match Pacquiao against some new blood that might actually have a chance at beating Pacquiao, like Sergio Martinez or Paul Williams.

First things first, though. Cotto has to beat Foreman next week to stay alive in the Pacquiao lottery and that may be easier said than done for Cotto. Foreman is a lot bigger, faster, quicker on his feet and hard to hit. This is the opposite of the normal opponents that Cotto has been matched against during his career. He usually is put in with fighters that just stand in front of him for 12 rounds, letting him get his shots off. Foreman isn’t that type of fighter. He’s more of a mover, clincher and a hit and run type of fighter.

Cotto had huge problems when he fought Oktay Urkal, a fighter who used that style against Cotto three years ago in 2007. Cotto tired in the 2nd half of the fight and became visibly frustrated with Urkal’s hit and grab technique, at one point body slamming him. You can be sure that Foreman will have Cotto looking even more frustrated because he’s a lot better than Urkal and a lot bigger too. I can see this fight going to a decision and Cotto winning a controversial one. It’s hard for the less popular fighter to beat a mini cash cow like Cotto, and that’s why I can see Cotto winning a decision, even if he clearly gets dominated by Foreman.

It may take something really special from Foreman for him to get the decision over Cotto on June 5th. I hope I’m wrong but I have a pretty good idea that I’ll be right. But I surely don’t want to see a rematch between Cotto and Pacquiao. Even if this is fight that their fan bases want to see, it’s not something the average fan will likely want to see again. Doesn’t Arum have any other ideas than to trot out Cotto again when he’s already been pounded by Pacquiao.

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