What are Pavlik’s chances in a rematch with Martinez?

By Boxing News - 04/18/2010 - Comments

Image: What are Pavlik’s chances in a rematch with Martinez?By Dave Lahr: As trainer/HBO analyst Emanuel Steward pointed out last night after watching WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-2, 32 KO’s) lose a 12 round unanimous decision to Sergio Martinez (45-2-2, 24 KO’s), Pavlik convince himself that he lost because of the cuts he sustained over both eyes in the fight and will want a rematch with Martinez. Sadly, I don’t see how the outcome will be any different a second time around even if Pavlik doesn’t get sliced and diced by Martinez’s searing shots. The fact of the matter is Pavlik is a slow plodder. He has little in the way of foot movement, his offense is totally predictable and basic, and he doesn’t have any hand speed.

As such, I see Pavlik getting his backside handed to him just like he did last night if he dares to fight Martinez again. I think Pavlik will fight him again, if nothing else but to get a good payday. That’s all I can see Pavlik getting out of the fight. Martinez controlled the first part and the last part of the fight against Pavlik, giving away the middle rounds by moving too much. Martinez’s boxing ability and hand speed was a level above Pavlik’s.

This fight was like a champion fighting a B level fighter. That’s what it looked like to me and wasn’t all that interesting. Would Pavlik have a chance to win the fight in a rematch? Maybe, but only if Martinez just stood in front of him, not moving his head and just fighting like some of the challengers that Pavlik mowed down as the WBC/WBO champion in the past three years.

Martinez isn’t going to fight that way, because he’s a lot better than anyone that Pavlik has fought before other than maybe Bernard Hopkins. However, I think Martinez would beat Hopkins right now. Martinez is fighting really well and seems to have gotten better in the past few years as he’s aged. At 35, Martinez is at the top of his game at an age where most fighters are on the decline.

If Pavlik does opt to use the rematch clause that he has in his contract with Martinez, I can’t see things going well for him. Pavlik is kind of a caveman-type fighter, with his basic 1-2 combinations. There’s nothing unpredictable about him, and he’s not going to be able to show Martinez any different looks that he won’t be expecting. This is why I think Pavlik get beat even worse in a rematch, and I think he needs to consider his chances and maybe save himself another beating.

Pavlik seems to have lost hand speed in the past year. Never fast to begin with, Pavlik fights now like he’s underwater, throwing really slow shots that Martinez easily avoided last night. I think some of Pavlik’s problems are because he’s put on muscle and is now a light heavyweight rather than a natural middleweight. He weighed close to 180 last night, which is shocking given that he’s fighting at 160. He probably has no business fighting at 160 at that weight.

I can only imagine how draining it was for him just to make weight. That couldn’t have helped him any. I think Pavlik has lost hand speed just through natural aging. If you compare Pavlik’s performance last night with his first fight against Jermain Taylor in 2007, it’s pretty dramatic how much slower Pavlik is now. I don’t think Pavlik can go backwards to what he was. That time is finished. He might better off skipping the super middleweight division, which is stacked with talent right now, and move up to the light heavyweight division where Pavlik can ply his trade there.

As weak as that division is, there’s a chance that Pavlik could be a factor almost immediately up there. At the same time, he’d bring more attention to a dull division. I think needs to stay away from Martinez and stick to slower fighters who stand right in front of him.



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