Pavlik vs. Martinez: Kelly may need a knockout to win

By Jim Dower: WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (36-1, 32 KO’s) doesn’t have the fastest hands or the best boxing skills in the division. There’s probably a ton of faster and better skilled fighters in the top 10 compared to Pavlik, but none of them have his power. It’s Pavlik’s power which enables him to beat guys that have been overall tools than him and have kept him as the WBC/WBO middleweight champion for the past three years since Pavlik defeated Jermain Taylor in 2007 to win the titles.

Of course, it hasn’t hurt Pavlik any that the middleweight division has been horrible during the past three years in terms of talent. It also hasn’t hurt Pavlik any that his promoter has wisely pitted him against the likes of Gary Lockett, Marco Antonio Rubio and Miguel Espino rather than more arguably dangerous foes like Paul Williams, Gennady Golovkin, Arthur Abraham, Felix Sturm, and Daniel Jacobs.

Had Pavlik’s promoter put Pavlik in with those fighters, there’s a good chance that Pavlik wouldn’t be the middleweight champion anymore. As it is, Pavlik was beaten by 45-year-old Bernard Hopkins in October 2008, but the fight was at a catch weight of 170 rather than at 160, the middleweight limit.
Pavlik will be facing his best opponent since Hopkins when he fights Sergio Martinez on April 17th, at the Boardwalk Hall, in Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Martinez lost his last fight to Paul Williams by a 12 round majority decision in December. Williams had huge problems with the movement and pot shots from Martinez, and was never really able to get his offense untracked because of the constant movement from the Argentinean fighter.

Having seen the fight a couple of times, I felt that Martinez should have been given the decision because I thought he won the fight by at least a two round margin. Martinez didn’t let Williams set offense the way he likes to do by standing directly in front of his opponent and literally raining punches down on them.

Pavlik is the same kind of fighter at least in terms of needing to be directly in front of his opponent to do his best work. Pavlik has poor lateral movement, and isn’t good at reacting well when his opponent moves laterally. Pavlik is a fighter that does well against opponents that fight in straight lines and who stay in one place pretty much.

If you look at who Pavlik has been matched against by his promoter, you’ll see that in almost every case it’s been a fighter that is stationary and who can’t move around the ring. The once exception was Hopkins, who even at 45, was able to have Pavlik tied in knots every time he would move a little. Martinez will be moving a lot, jabbing and pot shotting Pavlik continuously.

Unless the judges are feeling especially generous to Pavlik on April 17th, I can’t see him beating Martinez by a decision. It will likely take a knockout win for Pavlik to defeat Martinez unless the judges mess Martinez over by giving Pavlik the win, even if he’s out-boxed by Martinez all night long.


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32 Responses to “Pavlik vs. Martinez: Kelly may need a knockout to win”

  • jean says:

    sergio will lose in a robbery decision like his last 2 losses.

  • pride 79 says:

    Casper needs 2 vacate & move up 2 test himself @ spr midwght… Only person worth fighting @ midwght is Sturm, that’s not happening

  • gar 30 says:

    Sergio Martinez all the way for me in this one,I think Pavlik as exciting as he is, is always going to struggle against good movement and speed (unless he can find the equaliser!)
    The other factor is all the health problems Pavlik has had recently look to have really taken their toll he lived up to his nickname the ghost!

    I agree that Pavlik needs a KO to win this one and even at a hundred percent I couldn’t see that happening which I don’t think Pavlik is right now!

  • Finn says:

    The fans love to watch Martinez. They know he’s one of the slickest boxers out there. Nevertheless, if the fight is close or goes the distance, Kelly will get the nod from our good old unbiased U.S. judges, making it Martinez’s 3rd loss in a row. Yet Sergio smiles after each loss. He’s thinking of the millions he makes fighting here. He could even run up 4 or 5 of these “defeats” in a row. What a shame. He’ll then have to return to Argentina a wealthy rancher with hundreds of head of cattle on the pampas. That’s the unofficial deal.

  • Anonymous says:

    “Who is this skiiny white punk anyway”

    You racist piece of s, can’t handle a white man holding a title, can you?

  • T-roy says:

    When SM fought PW he weighed in at 160, given, in the later rounds of the fight he slowed down but he still looked pretty good given that he does not usually fight at middleweight. And i do remember that taylor said that he thought pavlik was faster than people thought, but im not sure it will help him against a fighter who can move and make fighters miss. If SM slows down like he did against PW then I could see KP stopping him late.

  • arroyo grande bob says:

    this man needs a trainer. The one two works down below but when you move up the’re a little harder to hit. Here is a hard jabbing, body punching wrecking ball waiting to emerge. I just hope it’s not to late.

  • z says:

    i think sergio is to small to compete with pavlik. Pavlik’s punching power will be to much for SM to handle.

    Pavlik does set up well style wise though for the counter punching martinez and i could see a scenario where if it gets to the cards SM could pull off the upset, but i dont think it will make it to the cards. Pavlik in 9

  • DaOleOneTwo says:

    Pav gonna work that body slow em down. Put it in the books
    in 8 or nine.

  • NOELWAN says:

    Pavlik has always been ahead on the cards! In the first Taylor fight the judges had him back on points but other than that fight and the Hopkins fight, Pavlik is always ahead on the cards. He was ill with bronchitis and a 102 temperature the week of the Hopkins fight. It is an established fact. Concerning his speed: When Taylor was asked what most surprised him about Kelly, Taylor said “His Speed”. And Daniel Jacobs? Are you serious? Has Jacobs even been tested against a top 20 guys yet? NO. He hasn’t. Why did you mention that kid’s name? It just exposes your faulty logic.

  • T-roy says:

    As much of a Pavlik fan that i am, I too would pick martinez for this one. He is coming off a great fight regardless of the loss, he does have formidable power and great movement whether it be lateral or not. That he is a southpaw as well just makes things worse for pav. I to see this as pav having to knock him out. but i just dont see it

  • Rayman says:

    Martinez looked good against a wild swinging brawler with no technical skills, he won’t look that good against Pavlik, but this is a tough fight for both. I’ll still pick Pavlik.

  • pride 79 says:

    Never said Sturm is the greatest, just a true #1… Why would u even think Abrhm backed out when he’s fighting the best spr middlwts in his division!… & u were a dumbass before u read my stuff!

  • pride 79 says:

    1st off, when I say all Pav does is fight jr mid’s I talkin bout guys like Rubio who’s a natural jr mid, Espino who started out @ welter, & now Martinez, Arum would never put Casper in with a tru #1 contender like Sturm…. All Nates doin is lookin 4 “The Grt Wht Hope” which is like lookin 4 The Fountn of Yth… Also I’ve never seen anybody make so many excuses for Casper, u sound just like him… Abraham wouldn’t back down from Casper, he moved up & joined da tournmt, which has far better fighters than anyone Casper is facing lately.

  • NAte says:

    Thank you boo

  • Boo says:

    sergio Martiez has never faced anyone who can box like Kelly Pavlik. The kid knocks people out because he has extremely good boxing skills, and uses them to set up the KO. Anyone who cannot see that ought to find a new sport to follow. They obviously do not understand boxing.

  • mario says:

    Finally articles no related to any mega fight crap!!

  • NAte says:

    Martinez will be his first Light middleweight. he cancled the pwill fight cause he knew he had to be as close to 100% he could be(plus if he didnt fight he would lose his title). he learned his lesson about thAT against b-hop.(in my opionion hopkins fought one of his best fights that night and dont know if pavlik would had beat him if he was healthy) Other pwill who hasnt pavlik fought that wanted to fight him. Abraham backed out, he whooped miranda when nobody wanted to fight him, calzaghe wouldnt fight him, winky turned him down so he had to go the toughest route fighting fights against guys that the other supposed champs would night fight cause they would be dangerous fights. I just dont see how we knock a guy who knocks veryone out hes supposed to but we have guys like pretty boy who cant knock out a guy twodivisions below him. Im not saying hes in there catagoryyet but hes not ducking anybody. And if you dont think its about him being white your either of another race or dumb. Just give the guy his credit, for having a bad year he went 2-0 2ko after a year and a half of fighting miranda, taylor twice, and bhop. So ulike all these other great supposed fighters hes still fights and actually throws punches. If youcant respect that than you dont respectboxing

  • pride 79 says:

    Nate WTF! R u talkin bout… Its not bout Pav bein white, blk, brn etc. Its bout him holdin a legit middlewt title but all he does is fight all these jr mid’s who have no business bein #1 contender’s… The 1st time he has a chance 2 face a legit jr mid he cancels 2 bouts with P-Will & 2 weeks later he fights some no namer!… Also u should never put Pav’s name in any sentence with Flyd, Sugar, or even RJJ!

  • NAte says:

    Just wondering if you guys remember the Taylor fights? Last time i checked hes pretty fast and Pavlik ko and decision him. He had one bad fight against a great, has fought everyone he’s supposed to but because he’s a white guy all he ever catches is crap. How many champs finght the mandatories? Pavlik did 3 times stopping all three unlike other champs that either find a way of fights or the go the distance. youneverhear anything about roy, floyd, Mosley in his prime ducking there mandatories which they did. Why? Cause in myopinion theres a bias againt White american boxers. If any of you haters, you should be rooting for an American Champion that knocks people out, especially a white one. He is what boxing needs,we havent had that since Tyson back in the day when boxing was huge!

  • RMC says:

    pride 79 – lol, that’s the best way I have ever heard it put. I too see a B’Hop happening here!

  • Lowe says:

    I like this fight personally, its power/aggression vs. speed/movement. I think Pavlik walks him down in the late rounds.

    Pauli maybe I am wrong but I dont think this article was about comparing him to All Time Divisional Greats. Fill me in if I missed something

  • kingalex says:

    Sergio will win easily, boxing the B-HOP way like pride79 said.

  • pride 79 says:

    No way the “Ghost” KO’s Martinez…. Martinez will B-Hop Pavlik all 12 rounds!

  • Patrick says:

    Weird! Take a close look at Kelly’s photo for this article. Notice the reflection behind Kelly’s head. Makes him look like he’s at a Star Trek convention. I thought he was wearing Mr Spock ears. Jones Junior was recently dressed up as Captain Hook, thought maybe Kelly was promising to do a Vulcan mind-probe on Martinez.

  • TravisT says:

    I think everyone is underestimating Pavlik here. Yea Martinez moves around a lot and DID deserve the nod against Williams , but Williams has zero defense ! How many shots do you actually see Williams block ? That’s right none because his only defense is his offense. Pavlik does block shots and also hits MUCH harder than Williams . I see this fight looking like Margarito/Cotto where Cotto looked great in the first few rounds but eventually all the pressure and Marg’s power caught up to him !! Pavlik by TKO round 9/10 !!

  • pride 79 says:

    Pavlik would have a hard time hangin with 2day’s middleweight’s, much less some of the all time greats…. When is he gonna stop fighting these jr mid’s [Martinez, Espino, Rubio] & step up 2 someone like Sturm, a true decent middlewt.

  • SWEET SCIENCE says:

    Man, i like Pavlik but i also like martinez. Both these fighters style’s makes for a good fight. I do hope Pavlik & wiliams sign to fight each other this year. Martinez deserves a rematch with williams for sure! this is going to be a good year for boxing.

  • Pauli says:

    Hagler would have spanked Pavlik like a bch. Who is this skiiny white punk anyway? He can’t compete with the great middleweights of all time. No way. Leonard? Nope. Hearns? Nope. Nada.

  • jb says:

    I’m sure people are tempted to pick Martinez based on his last fight but don’t be surprised if Pavlik looks good in this one. I’m not sure who would win this one.

  • pride 79 says:

    Hey Pav, make like a ghost already! After Martinez boxes your ears off well finally be rid of you & your lame as excuses!

  • Anonymous says:

    pavlik = sh*t.

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