Pacquiao-Clottey – “The Event” Preview and Predictions

By Christopher Lowe:

“Irish” John Duddy 28-1, 18 KO vs. Michael Medina 23-1-2,18 KO

10 Rounds Middleweight Division (160 lbs)

When looking into the combatants previous contest I noticed this is going to be a step up in weight for Medina. Medina’s last 9 fights where held in the Junior Middleweight Division at 154 pounds. Being the younger fighter at 23 years of age its possible he has out grown 154 pounds and is ready to move up in weight. However when ever a fighter moves up in class it always raises questions if they can carry their power up in weight with them. Medina relies heavily in this category with 18 of his 23 wins coming by way of knockout so this could become an issue. Especially if the fight starts to go rounds, Medina has only been 10 or more 3 times.

With victories coming over Matt Vanda, Howard Eastman, Anthony Bonsante and Luis Campas, Duddy has by far faced the more experienced opposition. In Medina’s past opponents the only recognizable name is Vanes Martirosyan who he dropped a lopsided decision to. A lot of this has to do with the fact that only twice he has fought outside of Mexico.

I expect John Duddy to pound out a workman like 10 round unanimous decision victory. Its his natural weight class and he is the more experienced fighter used to going the distance. Once Duddy realizes he can take Medina’s shots he will apply steady pressure and control the action.

Alfonso Gomez 21-4-2, 10 KO vs. Jose Luis Castillo 60-9-1, 52 KO

10 Rounds Welterweight Division (147)

To me this fight is all about age. Castillo is 36 years old with many wars under his belt. In his prime this fight would have never been made and had it happened hands down Castillo would have won. But at this point in his career going against a younger, hungrier foe in Gomez the deck is stacked against Castillo. Gomez will enter the ring at a prime 29 years old and the stronger, better conditioned man. Also Gomez is 7-1 in his last 8 fights with 5 of the wins coming by way of KO. His lone loss in the last 8 is the work of Miguel Cotto. Nothing to be ashamed of there as Cotto is P4P ranked.

My prediction is a Gomez victory by mid round KO. If Gomez fights smart he will attack the older mans body early and often. That’s what will end the fight a body shot, just like in Castillo’s loss to Hatton. Hopefully this is an end of a career and the last curtain call for Jose Luis Castillo. All good things come to an end as sad as it is. The end for Castillo should have come back in 2007 after his defeat to Ricky Hatton.

Thanks for the entertaining fights over the years and I hope to see Jose still involved in boxing, just not as a fighter any more.

Humberto “La Zorrita” Soto 50-7-2, 32 KO vs. David Diaz 35-2-1, 17 KO

12 Rounds Lightweight Division (135) WBC Title

This will be the first bout of the evening to feature a belt. The WBC will be awarding the winner with their version of the Lightweight Belt. Diaz will be looking to recapture the same title he lost to Manny Pacquiao. While Soto looks to win a title in a 3rd division, during only his 2nd fight in the weight class. I expect to see fan friendly fight with heated exchanges and fireworks throughout the bout. Both men like to come forward and aren’t afraid to stand and exchange.

What is interesting to me is that both fighters beat Jesus Chavez in their last action. Sotto did so in a more convincing fashion dropping Chavez in the 1st round, and going on to win a unanimous decision all judges scoring it 100-87. Diaz on the other hand squeaked out a majority decision, with one judge seeing it a draw.

My feeling is this fight will come down to movement and skill. Diaz is a rugged brawler with a ton of heart and determination, but not the most skilled. Nothing showed his heart more than his defeat to Pacquiao. Clearly he was out gunned from the opening bell, but refused to quit despite being bloody and battered. Sotto is a different character he has better distance control and throws well in combinations. Another factor to take into consideration is Sotto’s 72” to 69” reach advantage.

This fight will end with Soto the victor by way of late round TKO stoppage on cuts. Diaz is just to one dimensional all though he will have his moments in the fight during exchanges. Sotto’s sharp combination punching and movement will prove to be too much. Diaz’s tendency to cut and lack of head movement will prove to be his downfall. I have no doubt though that he will put forth a spirited effort.

Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao 50-3-2, 38 KO vs. Joshua “Grand Master” Clottey 35-3, 20 KO

Some fans are still grumbling about this main event after failed negotiations for a Mayweather fight. I think everyone was disappointed that the deal wasn’t finalized for what would have been the largest fight in years. It would have been historical in a financial aspect for the fighters and the sport, even casual fans where buzzing about it. Boxing was back in the main stream media headlines for that moment. As fans we forgot the sport we love is also a business. Fans are people and as people we are often unhappy with what we have and wish for bigger and better things. This error in human nature allows us to over look the ways we are blessed. As boxing fans we are currently blessed to be witnessing what will go down in history as one of the best boxers ever in Manny Pacquaio. My personal feeling is Pacquaio vs. Mayweather will still happen by late 2010 or early 2011 it is to big not to. For now let’s enjoy what we have in front of us Manny Pacquiao vs. Joshua Clottey. Bob Arum made the next best available fight at welterweight by inking the 5th ranked Joshua Clottey to contract. What else really could have been done? Shane Mosley ranked #2 was locked into a fight at the time with #6 Andre Berto. Manny and #3 ranked Floyd Mayweather couldn’t come to terms. Miguel Cotto ranked #4 was just beaten by Pacquiao. That leaves #5 ranked Joshua Clottey and a March 13th date at Cowboy Stadium.

This match up has been viewed in many boxing circles as Pacquiao’s stiffest challenge since stepping up to Welterweight. Clottey will enter into the ring on fight night as the largest man Pacquiao has faced. Clottey’s trainer Lenny De Jesus has went on the record stating he will step into the ring on fight night weighing 155lbs. Personally I feel that figure will be more around 160 to 163lbs. Showtime’s unofficial scales the day of the Diego Corrales they claimed he weighed in at 170lbs. There is also a 70” to 67” reach advantage in Joshua’s favor to consider.

Joshua Clottey should also prove to be the most durable fight Manny Pacquiao has fought as well. In 35 professional fights he has never been stopped and only knocked down once against Cotto. From my perspective it was more a balance issue, he wasn’t hurt by the punch. So this shouldn’t be talked about as a blow out or mismatch.

Now for my view of how the fight unfolds. I see Pacquiao coming out cautious in the early rounds working from a distance while in the center of the ring. Once he gauges Clottey’s power and reactions he will begin to open up more in the 3rd round. When Pacquiao starts to open fire in combinations Clottey will resort to his high and tight defense while lying on the ropes. This is going to leave him wide open for hooks behind the elbows to the body. My knock on Clottey’s defense is lack of movement. He just tends to put on the ear muffs and absorb shots. Clottey will have to make an attempt to force the issue in a last ditch effort around the 7th or 8th round knowing he is behind on the cards. This is where he faces real danger because opening up and thinking aggressive offensively will leave him open to counter shots. Freddie Roach has turned Pacquiao into a knockout counter puncher in recent bouts. This is where Pacquaio will move in for the kill with pin point accuracy. I see him stopping Clottey in rounds 10 or 11.

The determining factor will be Pacquaio’s overall speed. No one in the game has a comparable combination of hand speed and footwork. His footwork creates angles and the hand speed converts on the opportunities.

I hope everyone watches and enjoys the fights this weekend!

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