Maidana-Cayo prediction

By Jim Dower: Tonight, World Boxing Association light welterweight interim champion Marcos Maidana (27-1, 26 KO’s) takes on unbeaten Victor Cayo (24-0, 16 KO’s) in a 12 round bout on HBO. Although Maidana has received a lot of favorable press since stopping top contender Victor Ortiz in the 6th round last year on an HBO televised bout, it’s hard to say how good Maidana really is. He looked really powerful in that fight, showing heavy pressure, great power and an ability to get up off the canvas and fight hard after being hurt.

But Maidana looked limited defensively, and was knocked down three times in that fight by Ortiz. Maidana was wide open much of the time during that fight and seemed to walk into shots with his hands down. His footwork didn’t look good either, and Ortiz seemed to be able to control Maidana when he would move a little. Where Ortiz made the mistake was trying to go toe-to-toe with Maidana.

This was a bad idea, because Maidana seemed a little more suited to this style of fighting than Ortiz. On Saturday night, Cayo, a boxer-puncher, won’t likely be making the same mistakes that Ortiz made by trying to trade with the hard hitting Maidana. It would be a huge surprise if Cayo did anything other than to move backwards and pot shot for most of the fight.

Cayo will eventually go on the attack, but only after he’s figured Maidana out and seen whether it’s safe or not. Maidana had problems in his only loss of his career, a 12 round decision defeat against Andriy Kotelnik. A lot of people felt that Maidana had done enough to get a narrow win, and I’m one of them. However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Maidana looked bad much of the time against Kotelnik, and seemed to have problems getting past Kotelnik’s jab. Cayo may not be all that big of a puncher, but he does have a decent jab, and can slap really well with his shots.

If he can keep Maidana on the outside like Kotelnik was able to do successfully until tiring in the later rounds, Cayo could end up winning this fight. Kotelnik got tired in the last two rounds against Maidana, and took a lot of heavy sots that swelled up and reddened Kotelnik’s face. Cayo will have to keep his foot on the gas the entire fight against Maidana, because I don’t have a lot of confidence in Cayo’s ability to take the heavy shots that Kotelnik was able to absorb in that fight.

I think Maidana’s pressure will eventually get to Cayo. Maidana will keep him backing up, and eventually he’s going to catch him up against the ropes and land something really big. Once Maidana has an opponent hurt, he’s a great finisher. Cayo will make it easy for Maidana by keeping his guard down one time too many. That’s the wrong style to have for a fight against a big puncher like Maidana.

In Cayo’s win over Julio Diaz last year, Cayo was taking shots later in the fight when he got tired and reckless. I see the same thing happening against Maidana. Cayo will do well for five or six rounds, but then start to tire and take shots. Eventually, Maidana will find his chin and plant Cayo.

Prediction: Maidana by 9th round knockout.

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