Dirrell-Abraham, Ward-Taylor, Froch-Kessler: Picking the next winners of the Super Six tourney

By Scott Gilfoid: In the first bouts of the Super Six tournament, we saw a couple of impressive wins with talented American Andre Ward easily outclassing World Boxing Association super middleweight champion Mikkel Kessler in an 11 round technical decision, and former IBF middleweight champion Arthur Abraham stopping Jermain Taylor in the 12th round in their fight in Germany.

However, we also saw some ugliness, with WBC super middleweight champion Carl Froch defeating Andre Dirrell by a controversial 12 round split decision on October 17th, in Froch’s home city of Nottingham, England. Hopefully, the remainder of the Super Six tournament is free from any more controversial bouts like this.

Below I’ve included my analysis and picks for the upcoming Super fights in 2010:

Andre Dirrell vs. Arthur Abraham – Dirrell (18-1, 13 KO’s) fought with a great deal of heart and determination in his fight with Froch, showing boxing skills that I hadn’t seen since Sugar Ray Robinson was in his prime. Dirrell rarely was hit during the fight, and showed incredible hand speed second to none in the division. However, it looks as if the judges were looking for Dirrell to slug more and box less. This is something that Dirrell will need to be mindful of against Abraham, because using his incredible boxing skills and not getting hit by Abraham might not be enough to get the win. Dirrell will need to open up more with his offense, take more chances and use his quick reflexes to get out of the way of Abraham’s slow ponderous combinations. Dirrell is a lot quicker than the slow moving Abraham, and I can see this fight being one-sided from start to finish. Abraham doesn’t throw many punches until the last seconds of the round, because he likes to conserve his energy. This means that Dirrell will be able to work Abraham over for two and half minutes of every round with blistering combinations, and then focus on staying out of the way of Abraham as he comes charging forward with 30 seconds to go in the round. I don’t know what Abraham’s problem is with his stamina, but he just can’t seem to fight hard for more than 30 seconds during any one given round. This is a problem that he’s had for the past couple of years and it seems to have gotten steadily worse. Abraham didn’t look good against Taylor, aside from the knockout, and had the same problems letting go of his punches as he did in his previous bouts.

Prediction: I see Dirrell’s hand speed being way too much for the slow moving Abraham. He’s even slower than Froch and has terrible technique. Abraham won’t hit a fly as he runs forward in the last seconds of every round trying to steal it. And I don’t see Abraham working hard enough to win rounds by trying to take the fight to Dirrell. This is going to be easy. Look for Dirrell to work Abraham over in every round and win a 12 round lopsided decision.

Carl Froch vs. Mikkel Kessler – As I’ve already mentioned, Froch (26-0, 20 KO’s) was extremely fortunate to have won the 12 round split decision over Dirrell in their fight. I had Dirrell winning the bout eight rounds to three with one even. I didn’t see the fight as being close at all. However, Froch got the win, no matter how badly he looked in the fight, and will move onto recently defeated Kessler. Although Kessler looked horrid in his fight with Ward in November, appearing like a washed up over-the-hill fighter, I see Kessler boxing circles around Froch and easily beating him. The fight will take place in Denmark, the home country of Kessler, which will give Mikkel a huge boost in the fight. Froch will no doubt be coming forward in straight lines trying to pressure Kessler in hopes of landing a big one to end the fight. But Kessler moves too good to be trapped or dominated by a fighter with the slow foot movement and hand speed of Froch, so I can’t see this one ending good for Froch. I see this fight as identical to Kessler’s dominating win over Librado Andrade in March 2007. Froch is very similar to Andrade, only that Froch isn’t nearly as good on the inside compared to Andrade. I can’t see Froch winning one round against Kessler. Froch will be too slow to catch him. Each time that Froch moves at him, Kessler will jab him hard in the face and shift to the side and punish Froch with hooks and right hands to the head. This fight is going to be so one-sided that it will be tragic to watch.

Prediction: Kessler by one-sided 12 round decision.

Jermain Taylor vs. Andre Ward – If this fight had taken place three to four years ago, Ward (21-0, 13 KO’s) would likely have been in way over his head in this fight. Taylor (28-4-1, 17 KO’s), back them, had good enough stamina to dominate most of a 12 round fight and then cruise in the last three rounds. However, Taylor’s stamina has gone downhill in the past couple of years to the point where he’s in effect a six round fighter. Taylor controls the fight for the first six rounds against most of his opponents, but after that he fades badly and ends up getting stopped. Taylor has been knocked out in three out of his last five fights. Ward might not be a big knockout puncher historically, but he’s rugged and hits hard enough to cause problems. He shook Kessler up a couple of times in their last fight in November, and Kessler is noted for having a good chin. Taylor’s only chance at beating Ward is to focus on throwing fast combinations, using his jab and moving in an out all night. He can’t just stand in front of the southpaw Ward, because that will allow Andre to work angles on him pick him apart all night long. I wish I could say this fight will go well for Taylor, but I don’t see a good outcome for him.

Prediction: Ward by 10th round stoppage.

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