Cotto has all the tools to win

By Liam Fitzgerald: Tomorrow night’s superfight between the widely acclaimed p4p number 1, Manny Pacquiao, and Puerto Rican star Miguel Cotto is possibly the most mouth-watering and intriguing encounter of the year. Naturally, Pacquiao is the bookmakers’ favourite but Cotto is also favoured by many pundits and it would be foolish to write him off.

The main reason for that is that Cotto will present Pacquiao with a lot more problems than he has encountered in his previous 3 fights. No offence to Diaz, De La Hoya and Hatton but none of these were truly at the top of their game in these fights and only the win against Hatton, who was still rated in the top 2 light-welterweights at the time, can be seen as a significant triumph. However, the same cannot be said of Cotto who, even though he has received some criticism of his performances since losing to Antonio Margarito last year, is one of the worlds best at the moment. And even more importantly, two of Cotto’s greatest assets are generally perceived as being vital in order to get the better of the Filipino genius.

These two assets that I am talking about are head movement and body punching. Head movement, for me, is key in neutralizing Pacquiao’s attacks and could provide Miguel with the platform to victory. Manny’s best shot is undoubtedly the straight left hand and due to the speed with which he throws it, moving the head constantly is the only way in which to avoid being tagged by it. Just ask Juan Manuel Marquez and Ricky Hatton. These two fighters should be examples to Cotto as to how not to do it as they were both knocked down three times early on primarily because they did not move their head and Pacquiao’s straight lefts got through. However, Cotto is a fighter that has consistently good head movement and who doesn’t provide a stationary target for his opponent. If he continues with this tomorrow night, Pacquiao should find it hard to break through his defence.

Secondly, much is being made about Manny’s vulnerability to body shots. This is true but only really becomes an issue with expert body punchers. Once again, I feel a comparison with the Hatton fight is necessary. Hatton has a justified reputation as an excellent body puncher but as he was obliterated in two rounds, he wasn’t able to show it. Cotto likewise is very successful when hitting downstairs but unlike Hatton, he will surely get the chance to prove it. Cotto is unlikely to get overawed by the occasion as Hatton seemed to and as the fight wears on, I believe Cotto’s body attacks could become very significant. Even more so with Pacquiao being the quicker fighter and relying on speed more than stamina.

Therefore, I feel if Cotto successfully demonstrates these two skills, he will have an excellent chance of victory. However, it would not be a foregone conclusion. Pacquiao’s speed and ring craft are exceptional and frankly, if he performs at his best there is little that Cotto can do to stop him winning. I don’t believe Cotto’s heart should be brought into question as his brutal fight with Margarito would have led to lesser men giving up much earlier and the way he not just hung on, but pulled away from Clottey despite a horrendous cut in his last fight shows the man’s mettle. Nor do I think that Cotto’s supposed greater strength is the only advantage in his favour. Of course, he is the naturally bigger man but he is not just a typical pressure fighter who bullies the other man. He actually has great boxing skills which makes his inside work so efficient and effective. Pacquiao should be very wary of Cotto and his arsenal which could very well be enough for him to retain his title.

I must stress that I have the utmost respect for Pacquaio and his achievements and would not be at all surprised to see him win his seventh world title in different weight classes tomorrow. It will be a fascinating clash and one that is too close to call.

However, my prediction is for a Cotto win by 7th round TKO.

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