Chagaev-Klitschko: Look For Ruslan to Score a Shocking Knockout

By Dave Lahr: With the IBF/WBO title match just hours away between champion Wladimir Klitschko and challenger Ruslan Chagaev, I think this is as good a time any to chime in with my pre-fight prediction on tonight’s bout at the Veltins Arena, in Gelsenkirchen, Germany. Now, I really like the technical boxing skills and the size advantage that the big 6’6” Klitschko possesses in this fight, but I foresee an upset in this fight with Chagaev, 30, scoring a knockout.

This fight is going to be in front of a huge 60,000 plus audience, easily the largest audience that Wladimir has ever fought in front of. I think will be one of the factors in him losing tonight, because Wladimir tends to stress out under certain conditions, particularly when being pressured hard by his opponents.

Chagaev may not be a huge puncher, but he’s quite good at applying pressure on his opponents and is very accurate with his punches. That’s not good news for Wladimir, who seems to stress out when he has an opponent that is coming forward and looking to win the bout.

Part of that is because of a lot of the easy opposition that klitschko has been put in with during his career, opponents that seemed to put in only a minimal effort in trying to beat him. The three fighters that came looking to beat Wladimir – Lamon Brewster, Ross Purity and Corrie Sanders – knocked him out.

Tonight, Klitschko will be meeting up with an opponent in Chagaev who is in the same mold as Purity, Brewster and Sanders in determination if not power, and will be going after Wladimir from the opening bell to try and take him out.

Chagaev knows that his only chance to win is to put Wladimir on the back foot and get him moving around the ring a lot. Wladimir tends to fade rather quickly in his fights often by as early as the 6th rounds, so if Chagaev can keep him moving, make him fight hard, there’s a good chance that Chagaev will be able to grind Klitschko to a halt by the 9th or 10th rounds.

Wladimir won’t be able to move forever without getting hit by Chagaev, because Ruslan is way too good at docking the jab and getting in close. Wladimir’s move and jab won’t be a factor in this fight. Wladimir’s only real chance to win is if he comes out firing bombs from the 1st round on and catches Chagaev with a few big shots in the first six rounds of the fight when Wladimir is at this most dangerous point.

That won’t happen, because Wladimir will be looking to not get hit and will run around the ring throwing only jabs and nothing else. In effect, Wladimir will ruin his only chance at winning by failing to use his power while he still has it.

Look for Chagaev to take control over the fight after the 6th round and began to tag Wladimir with big power shots. By then 9th round, Wladimir will be like a wet noodle moving around the ring looking weak, tired and ready to drop. Chagaev will then tag him with a big left hand and put him down for the count.

Prediction: Chagaev by 9th round TKO.

WBA title Won’t Be On the Line for Chagaev-Klitschko Bout

The World Boxing Association had decided that the WBA heavyweight title won’t be on the line tonight when Wladimir Klitschko faces the WBA heavyweight champion in recess Ruslan Chagaev in Gelsenkirchen, Germany. It seemed like a long shot at any rate because of the controversy that surrounded Chagaev’s cancelled bout with WBA heavyweight champion Nikolay Valuev recently in Helsinki, Finland in which Chagaev failed the pre-fight medical exam. The WBA still hasn’t ruled on whether they will strip Chagaev of his WBA status. This was Chagaev’s third attempt at fighting Valuev with each fight being cancelled due to injury or illness.

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