Klitschko-Haye: Will Confidence be Enough For David to Win?

By Matt Stein: Former cruiserweight champion David Haye (22-1, 21 KOs) will be looking to pull off an upset when he faces International Boxing Federation/World Boxing Organization heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko (52-3, 46 KOs) on June 20th, at the Veltins Arena, in Gelsenkirchen, Germany. Never one to be considered short on confidence, the 28-year-old Haye firmly believes that his speed and power alone is going to be enough to compensate for his lack of size and experience going against the big 6’6 ½” Klitschko.

However, as most people know, confidence often isn’t enough to overcome better size, talent and experience. Indeed, you show me a fighter that is absolutely certain that they’re going to win and I’ll show you fool, because blind confidence must have other things backing it up for the fighter to be successful.

Now Haye has had a successful career at cruiserweight, but he’s only been fighting for seven years now with many of his fights having taken place in the cruiserweight division. At cruiserweight, Haye picked up the WBA/WBC/WBO titles in 2007 and 2008, beating Jean Marc Mormeck and Enzo Maccarinelli both by knockouts.

Wanting bigger paydays and bigger challenges, Haye decided to move up to the heavyweight division in 2008. He took an easy heavyweight contender Monte Barrett, and took him out in the 5th round in November 2008. Haye then got the opportunity of a lifetime when he was able to persuade Wladimir Klitschko into fighting him.

What made it a gift was that Haye got the title opportunity based on his resume (and his gift of gab) in the cruiserweight division and not because he had beaten a number of top heavyweights. Never the less, Haye finds himself in an enviable position in getting a title shot that he didn’t have to work for, because frankly, it’s doubtful that Haye is good enough to beat tough heavyweights like Alexander Dimitrenko, Alexander Povetkin, Chris Arreola, Lamon Brewster, Samuel Peter, and Eddie Chambers.

Haye would have a chance to beat them all with his power, but if the fight came down to a decision, Haye would likely lose to them because of their better boxing skills.

Against a heavyweight like Wladimir, who has perhaps equal power and almost as good hand speed, Haye has to hope that he can connect with something big early in the fight. At 6’3”, Haye is going to be much smaller than Klitschko and will find it difficult to land his shots with regularity.

Hopefully, Haye has picked up some sparring partners that are near or equal to the size of Wladimir, because Haye is going to need the practice of how to deal with a tall fighter like Wladimir. Haye needs to try and find a way to get in close enough to land his big shots.

Jumping in or leaping like he often does will probably be a disastrous move for Haye if he decides to fight like this against Wladimir.

Haye likes to throw the same kind of hooks that Ricky Hatton does, leaping from the outside to connect from the distance. However, it always leaves Haye wide open for counter shots as he’s coming in. Since most of Haye’s opponents have been lower quality cruiserweights, Haye hasn’t been weaned from throwing his lunging left hooks and right hands.

My guess is that Haye will still be relying on these punches against Wladimir on June 20th. It’s likely that Wladimir will plan to take advantage of Haye’s wild shots and will probably be ready with his left hook for when Haye attempts to throw them.

The likely result will be Haye being knocked down repeatedly and probably knocked cold before the 3rd round.

Like Hatton, Haye only knows how to fight one way and no matter how much training he gets, Haye will always throw lunging shots. It works against the mediocre cruiserweight opponents Haye has faced, but at heavyweight a fighter like Wladimir will take advantage of Haye’s poor technique and knock him out early.

So you see confidence is nothing without the skill, speed and experience to back it up. Anyone that is 100% certain that they’ll succeed in any one fight is a fool. Hopefully, Haye doesn’t make too much of a fool out of himself on June 20th.

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