Imponderables Make the Klitschko-Haye Showdown a Must See

By Steven Pink: On June 20th David Haye, 22-1 (21), must step into the ring with 6’7’’ 250 pound defending Heavyweight Champion Wladimir Klitschko, 52-3 (46) who will be defending his IBF and WBO titles and fighting in the relative comfort of his adopted home country. All the bluster, histrionics and trash talk in the world will be of little or no use to him once the first bell rings.

For Haye this evening will either represent the apotheosis of his professional career or end in potentially crushing and humiliating defeat. The fight has polarized the boxing community, with respected commentators making valid arguments for both combatants. The fact that this fight throws up a welter of interesting potential outcomes is what makes it a must see. Looked at objectively, the hype and ill will placed squarely to one side for the moment, both fighters have a number of ways to win.

The smart money suggests that Klitschko is likely to use his jab almost exclusively in the earlier rounds (Emmanuel Stewart will surely advise him to adopt this approach). The fighter himself has said he intends to subject Haye to 12 rounds of jabbing before lowering the boom. Klitschko has talked of his telescopic left hand reducing Haye’s features to the consistency of a pizza before humiliating him in the 12th round. Perhaps inadvertently this comment highlights both Wladimir’s most likely route to victory as well as a potentially meddlesome bee in the bonnet of his fistic armoury.

In routine defences against Sultan Ibragimov and Tony Thompson the giant Ukrainian used his stiff jab to keep his opponents at arms length, reducing potential exchanges to a minimum. That the tactics have worked is incontrovertible. However, what the viewing public were subjected to was 23 rounds of soporific torpor. The unification fight with the tepid Ibragimov was in the eyes of many the worst top flight heavyweight “fight” in recent memory. However, in his most recent performance against Hasim Rahman (possibly stung both by press criticism and his trainers growing disillusionment with his safety first approach) Klitschko forced the fight, adding combination punching and a hurtful right hand behind the jab. The result: a more aesthetically pleasing seventh round stoppage. However, a number of imponderables are worth considering. Is Klitschko’s jab, usually so dominant against slower opponents, quick enough to keep Haye at bay? Secondly, will the Ukrainian (annoyed by Haye’s trash talking and histrionics) deviate from the game plan and attempt to fight a more aggressive fight?

Wladimir has become something of a one-dimensional fighter; his championship run has been decidedly uninteresting and uninspired. Since his crushing losses to Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster a willingness to come forward and rumble has been superseded by a desire to avoid potentially dangerous exchanges at all costs. Indeed so formulaic has his in-ring approach become that the jab/clinch dynamic appears to have been imprinted onto his DNA. Stewart knows that letting his man engage in a risky slugfest with a banger like Haye could lead to disaster. But is this the one time that the usually ice cool champion lets his emotions get the better of him? It is not unimaginable that Klitschko will come straight at Haye using his jab as a range finder to set up the right hand that has accounted for 46 stoppages. This both maximizes his chances of scoring the type of knockout victory that will finally lead to some grudging acceptance from a sceptical American audience (who like their Heavyweight Champions to be the baddest men on the planet not safety obsessed technicians) as well as raising the likelihood of him shipping the sort of shot that has toppled him in the past. However, my mind keeps returning to Wladimir’s “pizza” comment and the worrying implication that it suggests about carrying the Englishman in order to punish him for his perceived temerity. It really does appear that the severed head T-shirt has got under the skin of the 1996 Olympic Super-Heavyweight Champion.

Toying with a devastating banger like Haye (even a potentially hurt, tired and demoralized Haye) could be tantamount to disaster. One punch (as Haye himself is fond of reminding everyone) can turn a heavyweight fight in a heartbeat and Haye will be dangerous as long as he is standing upright. Haye’s exciting, multi knockdown win over Monte Barrett suggests the former Cruiserweight Champion has carried his power with him to the heavyweight division and if this proves the case one can make the argument for him being the first truly “live” opponent that Wladimir has fought in quite some time.

Both men are seen as being suspect in terms of punch resistance. Both have been knocked down and stopped, although a closer look at their respective losses highlights some interesting facts. Wladimir can quite clearly be hurt and overwhelmed if caught. In his most shocking loss to Sanders he was simply overwhelmed. Caught like a rabbit in the oncoming headlights, he was unable to avoid the South African’s whirlwind assault, being felled four times inside two rounds. His supporters claim Haye will be too small, to deficient in reach to nail to upright colossus and cause any lasting damage. In considering this it is worth noting that, despite being soundly out-boxed for almost the entire contest, Samuel Peter (at 6’1’’ considerably smaller than Haye) was perfectly capable of landing enough power shots to drop the Ukrainian three times.

Haye on the other hand suffered his only defeat (a shock reverse against veteran Carl Thompson in 2004) as a result of exhaustion, having punched himself out in a furious early rounds assault. The knockdown he suffered in his Cruiserweight showdown against Jean-Mark Mormeck is possibly more revealing. Haye’s penchant for holding his left hand low was punished and the Frenchman’s right hand-left hook combination resulted in a decidedly rubber legged knockdown. That Haye bounced back up and showed enough ring savvy to clinch and allow his head to clear is a point in his favor, though he will not want to repeat the dose against this opponent. Klitschko, on the other hand, likes to clinch at close range but he has looked alarmingly vulnerable when caught, if an opponent follows up and refuses to let him off the hook. Clearly Haye can hurt him if he connects and as he showed against Maccarinelli and Barrett, in his two most recent fights, when he gets an opponent going he is anything but reticent in letting the punches go.

Haye has speed, youth and freshness on his side. His professional career (The Thompson fight aside) has been a relative procession, so much so that after 23 professional fights Haye has only fought 78 rounds. Stamina is often cited as a potential stumbling block and in this fight it may prove to be the conclusive factor, rather than any perceived glass in the Bermondsey fighters jaw, that decides the outcome of the contest. At a solid 250 pounds Klitschko will look to bully the smaller man, wearing him down in what are sure to be numerous clinches. Twelve rounds is a long time to attempt to manhandle an opponent of the Ukrainian’s size. David may indeed find the well dry by the middle rounds, his stamina reserves having dwindled due to the interminable clinches and the fact that he will have to force the pace and throw power shots consistently in an attempt to offset his opponent’s advantages in height and reach. Wladimir has refined his jab and clinch tactics to, if not a fine art (no-one will ever accuse him of looking fluid and classy) then a serviceable approximation of one. Klitschko possess a solid ring brain and enough lateral movement to maintain the distance between him and Haye. The smaller man has the unenviable task of forcing Klitschko into a fight, taking him out of his comfort zone and most importantly, making him work. If Wladimir is allowed to settle in the middle of the ring pumping out the jab then the fight is as good as lost for Haye. Again the smart money, if a fight possessed of such a myriad of possible permutations can be said to invite smart money, suggests that to win Haye must gamble and power his way to a conclusive early finish. If the fight goes past five or six rounds the boxer in Klitschko should possess all the advantages. I can see the sense in this evaluation, though it is worth remembering that Haye was the 2001 World Amateur Championship Silver Medalist and clearly possesses enough smarts and ring acumen to adopt a variety of approaches.

So the stage is set. Will Wladimir comfortably outbox the younger man? Can Haye get close enough to unload the Hayemaker that has accounted for all of his most spectacular wins? Will the Ukrainian box with his head (as he has done to solid if unspectacular effect in his championship career to date) rather than his heart? Can. Haye use his underrated boxing skills and superior quickness to outfox the titleholder in the manner of a Roy Jones against John Ruiz? Whatever happens is likely to confound expectations, to shock, surprise or frustrate. On June 20th prepare for the battle of the imponderables: Hagler-Hearns revisited or 2009’s revisiting of Carlos de Leon-Johnny Nelson. I for one am prepared to pay my money and risk a stinker rather than miss a thriller.

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