Katsidis-Chavez, Valero-Pitalua & Escobedo-Hernandez Predictions

By Boxing News - 04/03/2009 - Comments

valero5333By Dave Lahr: Undefeated knockout artist Edwin Valero (24-0, 24 KOs) will be fighting 39-year-old Antonio Pitalua (46-3, 40 KOs) for the vacant World Boxing Council (WBC) lightweight title on Saturday night at the Frank Erwin Center, in Austin, Texas. Ranked number #1 in the division, Valero, 27, is hoping to impress as he’s making his first appearance in the United States in six years since 2003.

At the same time, Valero is moving up from super featherweight to lightweight straight into the WBC title fight without any warm against lesser lightweight opponents. That’s not a good thing, especially for a fighter like Valero who’s already visited the canvas previously in his career.

Also on the card is number #4 ranked World Boxing Organization lightweight Michael Katsidis (24-2, 20 KOs) who will be facing 36-year-old former WBC super featherweight champion Jesus Chavez (44-4, 30 KOs) in a 10-round bout. Additionally, lightweight contender Vicente Escobedo (19-1, 12 KOs) will face former IBF super featherweight champion Carlos Hernandez (43-7-1, 24 KOs) in a 10-round bout.

Valero had picked up a ton of fans since starting his boxing career seven years ago. However, he’s fought most of the time in Venezuela and Japan against much less impressive opposition than other super featherweights, and he may be a bit over-hyped at this point in comparison to his actual talent. He’s moving up in weight hoping to get a shot in the future against Manny Pacquiao. Valero is going to have to be very impressive against Antonio Pitalua for that to happen.

On paper, this looks like an easy win for Valero due to the age differences between these two fighters. However, Pitalua has a lot of power and Valero doesn’t have the best of chins, so this is still a fight that is a pick em. Pitalua is coming off a 6th round stoppage of contender Jose Armando Santa Cruz in September 2008 in the WBC lightweight title eliminator.

Prediction: Valero by 10th round TKO

Escobedo, 27, is a talented fighter and former 2004 Olympian for the U.S, ranked #13 in the WBO. He has great technical skills but not much in the way of power or size. Ultimately, his lack of power will probably prevent Escobedo from progressing to a title. However, he remains a threat to the lower level guys and can probably remain in the division as a spoiler for the next five years or so.

Escobedo is one of Golden Boy’s fighters, but he’s one of in which I feel they’ve made a miscalculation in terms of seeing him as a future champion. He won’t be.

Escobedo faces Hernandez, 37, a former IBF super featherweight champion who has lost four out of his last seven fights coming in to Saturday’s bout. There’s not much to say about this one. Escobedo will outwork Hernandez, take a lot of heavy shots from the former champion, but prevail due to Escobedo’s youth.

Prediction: Escobedo by 10-round decision.

Katsidis, 28, will be facing a tough test in the 36-year-old Chavez, a former WBC super featherweight champion. Katsidis, ranked #4 in the WBO, really needs this win after suffering two losses in his last three fights, losing to Joel Casamayor and Juan Diaz.

Katsidis didn’t look at that impressive in his last fight, a 10-round decision over Angel Hugo Ramirez in January 2009. Katsidis looked stunned by shots on the couple of occasions that Ramirez let his hands go.

Chavez, ranked #15 in the WBC, was defeated by Julio Diaz in 2007 in a 3rd round stoppage due to a leg problem of Chavez. The leg has since healed and Chavez has responded with two impressive wins over Daniel Jimenez and Andres Ledesma in 2008.

I see Katsidis as looking good initially, but then running into some huge shots from Chavez and getting taken out. Chavez is a much better fighter, and has fought better competition throughout his long 15 year pro career.

Prediction: Chavez by 8th round TKO.



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