By Chris Williams: In three months, Bernard Hopkins will be 44 years-old, making him one of the oldest active fighters in boxing. It’s quite an accomplishment that he’s still fighting at this late age, even though he’s lost most of his last five fights. On Saturday night, Hopkins will be taking arguably his toughest opponent of his career in the way of Kelly Pavlik, the undefeated WBC/WBO middleweight champion. The fight won’t be for the middleweight championship, as it will take place at a 170 pound catch weight. Hopkins has stated that “He’s [Pavlik] got great defense, but eventually … his defense will lapse a couple of times,” indicating that Hopkins may somehow believe that he has a chance of stopping Pavlik.

One would hope that Hopkins isn’t pinning his hopes on that coming about, because if it doesn’t, he may find himself in deep water against the hard-punching Pavlik. It’s been four years since Hopkins scored a knockout, the last occurring on a phantom body shot delivered against Oscar De La Hoya in the 9th round in September 2004.

Given the lack of time that has gone by since then, it would probably be safe to assume that Hopkins probably has little chance of scoring a similar knockout against Pavlik on Saturday. More likely, Hopkins will be the one getting knocked out in the fight if he chooses to slug with Pavlik. That’s the interesting part. Hopkins hasn’t faced a slugger in years, dating back to his fight with Felix Trinidad in 2001.

In that fight, Hopkins used his jab and sharp combinations to control the bout in the early portion. In the later rounds of the fight, Hopkins turned up the heat and started going toe-to-toe with the thinner Trinidad, eventually stopping him in the 12th round. The difference here, however, is that Hopkins is seven years older, facing a larger fighter than Trinidad in Pavlik, similarly having to deal with a fighter that not only punchers harder than himself but has a substantially better work rate as well. This isn’t going to be a fight that Hopkins can control with his jab, nor is it one that he can win by trying to out-slug Pavlik. The time for that is past, seven to ten years ago in Hopkins rear view mirror.

For him to win, he’s going to have to come up with some kind of strategy to keep from getting pinned down and blasted out by Pavlik. Lets me real, Hopkins isn’t going to win very many exchanges if he chooses to stand in front of Pavlik, so he’s going to have to come up with a plan where he can hit and run, and mix in some clinches along the way. He can’t clinch as much as he did last time out, because Hopkins was all over Joe Calzaghe and he looked to be trying to slow down the fight rather than trying to win it.

At 43, I doubt that Hopkins’ legs are strong enough to let him move around the ring for more than a couple of rounds without tiring on him, and letting Pavlik catch up to him. I still think Hopkins may try that, because if he just clinches all night long, the fight is as good as lost for him. He’ll have to do more than land sporadic punches to get the nod on the judges’ scorecards, and he’ll also not be in the position where he’s going to be throwing the harder punches. Pavlik punches much harder and is capable of punching like that all fight long, not just loading up on shots like Hopkins does.

Overall, I give Hopkins little chance at winning the fight. He’s going to lose unless he can turn back the clock and show something that I’ve not seen from him in a decade. Even then, he’s not really in the same class as Pavlik and can only hope to win a few mercy rounds under the best case scenario.