By Jason Kim: As much as I’d like to see this Saturday’s fight between undefeated middleweight Kelly Pavlik and veteran Bernard Hopkins as being potentially an interesting bout, my thoughts are that it will be a dull one, a fight filled with cinching, wrestling and a lot of fouls. Contrary to what Pavlik (34-0, 30 KOs) has been saying about him possibly being able to knock the 43 year-old Hopkins out, I just don’t see that scenario happening on Saturday. Hopkins can take a good shot and he won’t give Pavlik much of a chance to get more than one or two shots off at a time before diving in and clinch him.

Hopkins will be looking to survive, and will shut down Pavlik’s high explosive offense with his grabbing and wrestling. This, indeed, is how the fight will be conducted. In other words, on Hopkins’s terms, with him clinching all the way and of course losing by a decision.

However, Hopkins is a master of the punch and grab technique, having used it for many years since he started losing his hand speed and work rate several years ago. This, in effect, will be leaving Pavlik very few opportunities to land his shots before having to deal with Hopkins draped all over him, wrestling him in a clinch. Naturally, if the fight were fought at long range, Pavlik would absolutely destroy Hopkins and if he didn’t knock him out with a shot, he’d likely win on cuts or swelling around Hopkins’ eyes.

Yet that’s not how this fight is going to occur. Hopkins no longer has the speed or the work rate to fight in a traditional manner and will be forced to rely on his old and trusted grabbing and clinching to slow the fight to a crawl. Pavlik, more of medium range to long distance fighter, isn’t nearly as skilled on the inside like Hopkins. That’s going to be a problem for Pavlik, because Hopkins prefers fighting at close range where he can use his shorter punches, wrestling and an occasional elbow to give his opponents all kinds of problems.

Hopkins used this strategy to perfection in his fight with Joe Calzaghe in April, and though Hopkins would eventually lose the fight due to him tiring out somewhat in the second half of the fight, he did a much better job than most people expected he would going into the bout. He fought well in the first six rounds of the bout, however, and if he could have continued at that pace he would have won the fight easily.

In the last six rounds, he wasted the opportunity by not throwing enough punches and clinching way too much. While he did succeed in slowing down Calzaghe’s offense with his constant clinches, Hopkins wasn’t getting in enough of his own punches to impress the judges. Against Pavlik, who punches much harder than Calzaghe, Hopkins will be facing someone with a good work rate. It’s obviously not as good as Calzaghe’s normal punch output, which can be as high as 1000 punches thrown per bout, but it’s much better than Hopkins’ anemic offense.

If Hopkins has any hope of winning the fight, he’s got to turn back the clock and try to at least match Pavlik’s punch out. Simply put, it may not be possible. Hopkins appears to be fighting as good as he can with what he has left in his 43 year-old body, and to ask it to rev any hire than it is may be risking him getting taken out by the much younger Pavlik. As much as Hopkins likes to portray himself as a warrior, I see him fighting a safety-first type bout, looking to survive to fight another day rather than risking having his head taken off by choosing to exchange with the power-punching Pavlik.

This is a fight that Hopkins would have likely lost no matter how young, because he just doesn’t have the offensive skills to beat someone like Pavlik. As such, look for Hopkins to make it ugly as heck, clinching, wrestling and slowing the fight to a boring crawl. At the end, Hopkins will still be standing but he’ll have his fourth loss in his last six fights and will have to seriously consider retirement.