Pavlik-Hopkins: Could Kelly Lose?

By Sean McDaniel: I must admit first off, when I initially heard about unbeaten WBC/WBO middleweight champion fighting 43 year-old Bernard Hopkins (48-5, 32 KOs) in a non-title bout held at the catch weight of 170 lbs, I thought it was a bad decision for Pavlik because he’d easily win a dull 12-round fight. But now that I’ve had time to think it over, I’m starting to come to the belief that Hopkins may actually be able to win this fight quite handily in fact.

Pavlik, 26, perhaps the hardest puncher in the middleweight division today, doesn’t have much experience in fights that he’s had to win by the use of more technical skills. So far, he’s been able to get by with his power and heavy pressure both of which have enabled him to blast out or decision good but not great opponents like Jermain Taylor, Gary Lockett, Edison Miranda, Jose Luis Zertuche, Bronco McKart and Fulgencio Zuniga. And, with the exception of McKart, they each went right at Pavlik trying to take him out with big shots and beat him at his own game. Taylor, who had previously been stopped by Pavlik in a 7th round TKO in September 2007, tried to make some adjustments to his style and box more against him in their rematch in February 2008.

Hopkins will use his experience as one of the best inside fighters ever in boxing to nullify Pavlik’s power at close range, keeping him from getting the needed extension on his shots to hurt Hopkins. When he’s in close, Hopkins is the best there is, throwing short punches to the head and body and making him hard to hit in return. After getting his shots off, Hopkins will likely grab Pavlik, not allowing him to get his big shots in like he’s accustomed in his fights. There’s no equivalent fighter on Pavlik’s record that can compare to the style and fighting ability that he’ll be facing when he steps into the ring with Hopkins on October 18th in Atlantic City.

Pavlik is usually allowed to stand in front of his opponents firing off one big shot after another while his opponent either tries to gamely fire back or else attempts - without much luck - to try and cover up and block some of the big incoming shots from Pavlik. More often than not, Pavlik is able to quickly take out his opponents in the first seven rounds of the fight without too much trouble. Pavlik’s stand up style seems well suited for Hopkins, who likes to keep his head bent low and who comes boring in with both fists flying.

Pavlik wouldn’t have more than a second or two get in one, maybe two shots, before Hopkins starts landing his own shots on the inside and then spoils Pavlik’s efforts to land any additional punches by clinching him tightly. Another problem for Pavlik will be the fact that he’s going up in weight to face Hopkins, a bigger fighter than him. Hopkins may have been a middleweight at one time, but he’s now grown into the light heavyweight division and is used to fighting at that weight. Pavlik, though, will be fighting for the first time at 170, without any tune-up bouts to try and get adjusted.

He previously looked slightly sluggish in his rematch with Taylor held at the 166 pound catch weight. At 170, it might even be worse for him, slowing him down and making him more susceptible to getting out boxing by Hopkins. No will disagree that Hopkins has the vastly superior boxing skills of the two going into their fight. This means that Hopkins, who’s a classic boxer/puncher, has the ability to choose between slugging it out with Pavlik and perhaps knocking him out, or opting to box if he should choose to.

Pavlik doesn’t have this same flexibility and can only do one thing and one thing only - slug it out. For this reason, I see Hopkins winning on a close decision. He already showed that he can box in his last fight against Joe Calzaghe, a fighter with far more boxing skills than Pavlik could ever dream of having, a fight that many people felt should have been given to Hopkins instead of Calzaghe. If Hopkins fights the same way he did against Calzaghe in April, you can rest assured that Hopkins will easily beat the likes of Pavlik.