Options Available For Miguel Cotto – Williams, Judah, Margarito, Clottey

By Thomas Hanson: Since his brutal 11th round TKO loss to challenger Antonio Margarito (37-5, 27 KOs), there’s been a lot of speculation about what former WBA welterweight champion Miguel Cotto (32-1, 26 KOs) will do next to rebound from the loss. For most boxing fans, they would like nothing better than to see Cotto get right back in the ring and fight Margarito in a rematch at the end of the year, perhaps in November or December. This would be the best scenario, because a rematch between the two of them would be a huge fight, a tremendous moneymaker for both fighters.

Cotto, though, took a lot of punishment in the later part of the fight in particular to the head, and it’s uncertain that he would want to risk getting back in the ring with a heavy pressure fighter like Margarito so soon. It would definitely be a ballsy move on Cotto’s part if he were to do that, similar to the way that welterweight Paul Williams immediately called for a rematch with Carlos Quintana after losing his title to him months earlier. However, in Williams’ case, he didn’t take a savage beating like Cotto, and he fought more or less competitively throughout the fight, especially in the later rounds when he appeared to be coming on and starting to regain control of the fight.

Cotto won most of the earlier rounds and continued to do well up until the 10th round when he got caught up against the ropes in the last 10 seconds of the round and was hurt by some big shots from Margarito. While I think it would be a great fight and a huge show of courage by Cotto should he opt for an immediate rematch with Margarito, I don’t see happening. He doesn’t appear to be the one choosing his fights, and I doubt that his promoter will want to put him in another risky match like this so soon after taking a lot of punishment.

Cotto has recently made comments about possibly being interested in fighting the winner of the Joshua Clotty vs. Zab Judah match, which occurs this Saturday night for the vacant IBF welterweight title. This would be a great fight, whoever emerges the winner between Judah-Clottey. One would guess that it might be Clottey given his better success in recent fights, and if he does indeed come out as the winner of the bout, he would be a very tough opponent for Cotto, especially after his war with Margarito. I think this might be too hard of a fight for Cotto to take, if you ask me, because Clottey hits hard, is very powerful and fights well in the first half of his bouts.

Unlike many of Cotto’s other opponents, Clottey is like pure dynamite for the first seven or eight rounds, but then tires out quickly after that. He would in effect be matching Cotto, also a fighter that is at his best for the first eight or so rounds, punch for punch during that time, and the bout would likely be very close going into the last four rounds of the fight. I think Cotto would probably have enough left to beat Clottey over the last four rounds by moving a lot and trying to keep away from his power shots.

But, if Clottey pressures him hard, the same way that Margarito did, we may see Cotto fall apart again in the last two rounds of the fight. At this point, I would rate Clottey a better fighter than Shane Mosley, who Cotto barely beat in their fight in March 2008. Clottey is perhaps too solid and too powerful for Cotto to be put in there with. Margarito had a heck of a time with Clottey, absorbing some awful punishment in the early part of the fight before Clottey tired out, and suffered a reported hand injury. If not for the hand injury, who knows? Clottey may have had enough to beat Margarito, although I tend to doubt it because he was fading fast from fatigue starting in the 6th round.

WBO welterweight champion Paul Williams would be another option for Cotto to take for his next fight. He doesn’t hit nearly as hard as Margarito, tending to slap a lot with his shots and can be out-boxed as shown by Quintana. However, Williams brings the same, if not more, kind of pressure that Margarito does, averaging well over a 100 punches thrown per round. In the early portion of the fight, I have no doubts that Cotto could effectively deal with Williams’s constant flow of punches by moving often, and not allowing him to set up his offense.

Yet, Williams with his huge 6’2″ frame, long reach and good movement, will catch up to Cotto sooner or later and will land no matter how much Cotto chooses to move. In the later rounds, Williams will probably catch up to Cotto and rain shots on him as much as Margarito did. Given Cotto’s poor stamina in recent fights, I seriously doubt he could handle this kind of pressure without either being knocked out or end up losing the last four rounds of the fight.

He might get lucky and be given a gift decision by the judges, who would possibly award him for his cleaner landing shots, ignoring the shower of punches that he will probably be getting hit with. That’s still not a good thing for Cotto, because he needs a winnable fight, not another war like last time. He wouldn’t be able to count on knocking Williams out, either, because he has an extraordinary chin and can take a lot of punishment without getting hurt.

Because of this, I see this being almost identical to his fight with Margarito in which Cotto will be facing a fighter that he can’t match for punch output, and one that he can’t hurt or knockout, leaving him only one option – to run continuously and hope the judges award him for cleaner scoring shots.

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