By Michael Lieberman: Now that WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (34-0, 30 KOs) has dispatched with the ugly business of his easy title defense over Gary Lockett last Saturday night, we can now move onto the business of selecting Pavlik’s next opponent. As of now, Pavlik, including much of the world, prefers that super middleweight Joe Calzaghe be he his next opponent. The reason is simple: Calzaghe is one of the most popular boxers in the world, having stayed unbeaten during his entire career and holding onto a piece of the super middleweight title for over 10 years without so much as getting a scratch.

Granted, most of those title defenses have come against less than stellar opposition in comparison to the high quality fighters that exist in the super middleweight division today, but so what? Calzaghe did what he had to do, even if it was against softer opposition.

From Pavlik’s side, there’s no question that he wants the bout with Calzaghe next since that’s the fight that would bring in far more money than what he’d likely get in title defenses against the likes of John Duddy or Marco Antonio Rubio. However, it’s not entirely up to Pavlik, unfortunately, because Calzaghe has to make a big decision - does he want to take an easier fight against Roy Jones Jr., which would pay him good, albeit not quite as good as a bout with Pavlik, or does Calzaghe want to take the bigger risk and face Pavlik?

Obviously, the bout with Pavlik would be a smash hit with the boxing fans, who would probably line up in droves to watch the fighter, either on PPV or at the location of the fight. No matter how bad the economy is, people would gladly pay to see this fight, I’d be willing to bet. In the case of Jones vs. Calzaghe, it’s not so easy to say this. A large amount of people would pay to see it, but I’m guessing that many of them would want to do this mostly because of their desire to see Jones get stretched one more time rather than their hope for seeing a competitive fight.

Calzaghe has the final say so, though I think his promoter does have a big influence on him. Obviously, it would be a tremendous risk for Calzaghe to take by fighting Pavlik instead of Jones, because in making that choice, Calzaghe would potentially be cutting off any future big-money fights of this magnitude. Why, you say? Because Pavlik is the younger and stronger fighter and will likely plant Calzaghe’s head in the 4th row once he connects with something big.

This isn’t a fight in which Calzaghe can run and slap his way to a controversial decision like in his last fight, a controversial split decision win over 43 year-old Bernard Hopkins in April. This is a bout in which Calzaghe will be facing his toughest test of his career at arguably the weakest point of his career. Calzaghe looked faded in his last fight against Hopkins, who I personally believe beat Calzaghe by at least a couple of rounds, throwing weak slaps and showing to be ineffective against the more skilled Hopkins. With Pavlik, however, Calzaghe is facing an even better fighter than Hopkins, one that can not only out-box Calzaghe like in his last fight, but it a very real threat to knock him out at any point in the fight.

This is why I think that Calzaghe will overrule his promoter and choose Jones instead. It may not be a popular choice, but hey, at least Calzaghe will be able to stay unbeaten for a little while longer. Once he gets around to fighting Pavlik – and that’s still an iffy thing – then we’ll be seeing the last of Calzaghe, because Pavlik will most surely knock him out, and along with it his unbeatable boxing legacy. Remember where you heard it first!

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