Valuev vs. Chagaev On May 31st

By Scott Gilfoid: Undefeated WBA heavyweight champion Ruslan Chagaev (24-0, 17 KOs) will finally be giving a rematch to former champion Nikolay Valuev (48-1, 34 KOs), whom he beat by a majority decision on April 14th 2007. The rematch long awaited by Valuev, will be taking place on May 31st at the Arena Oberhausen, Oberhausen, in Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany. In their prior fight, Chagaev did little to distinguish himself as the victor in the fight as he defensively, mostly staying on the outside and when he would attempt to land punches, they would come up short and land on Valuev’s chest or gloves.

Only rarely did the short, 6’ foot Chagaev even reach Valuev’s head. Rather than give Valuev a much needed rematch so as to distinguish who the real better fighter is between them, Skelton cooled his heals doing little for nine months until finally defending his title against Max Skelton in January 2008. Chagaev fought poorly against Skelton, clinching often and looking slow and out of shape. The fight resembled more of a tough man contest than a professional title match.

I suppose Chagaev can be excused somewhat since he’d been inactive for nine months leading up to the fight, yet one would expect a little better performance than that from a heavyweight title holder. The again, the way that Chagaev won his title – with a controversial decision – was less than the ideal way of proving that he deserved to be a champion.

Chagaev, 29, had major problems dealing with Valuev’s tremendous size advantage last time out, and could only sporadically land punches. Much of the time, Chagaev would dance around on the outside, eating jabs from Valuev and occasionally rushing in to land a punch or two in a furious flurry. However, due to his size disadvantage, Chagaev’s punches rarely ever hit home, landing harmlessly on Valuev’s gloves or arms.

It’s hard to imagine what Chagaev can do this time to land his shots any better than last time. He certainly hasn’t grown any taller since that time, which means that in order for Chagaev to conclusively beat Valuev, he’s going to have to get in punching range and land a high volume of punches. Even if he misses some of them, at least enough will get in for him to possibly get the decision. That’s where the danger lies, however, for when Chagaev comes in close he will be making himself susceptible to the mauling tactics of the 320 lb Valuev.

He may not have true one-punch knockout power like, say, Wladimir Klitschko, but Valuev is big enough that if he lands a series of his clubbing shots, he can still accomplish the same result. I know for me, if Chagaev fights like he did last time out, missing shots and only hitting gloves, there’s no way I can see him winning the fight again. I think he was lucky last time out because I think the mood was set for Valuev to lose the fight, even though as a champion you’re supposed to be able to hold onto your title unless you are soundly beaten. Unfortunately, Valuev seemed to be the challenger that night, even fighting like challenger as he attacked Chagaev all fight long, and still not getting the win for all his superior work.