By Peter Kurth: If you’re all that familiar with Bernard Hopkins (48-4, 32 KOs) and know how he typically fights, you already know that this Saturday’s fight with undefeated super middleweight Joe Calzaghe (44-0, 32 KOs) is going to be bloody and filled with a certain amount of fouls. That, I’m afraid, is almost a given. The question is how many and whether the fouls will have an effect on the mindset of the 36 year-old Calzaghe. On the whole, I fully expect Calzaghe to be cut in the first three to four rounds, likely a bad cut from either a head butt or an elbow.
The cut, especially occurring so early in the fight, will put Calzaghe into a position where he will very likely have to either fight harder, as he attempts to build up a lead in order to be ahead in case the fight is stopped prematurely due to the severity of the cut or have the opposite effect, where Calzaghe backs off to try and protect the cut.
Whatever the case, I expect him to be hit hard with some off course elbows and perhaps a stray head butt early on. The one chance Calzaghe has, however, is to try and keep at a distance at all costs and hope that referee Joe Cortez penalizes Hopkins when he begins fouling. I doubt that Cortez will deduct points, which will allow the fight to turn ugly once Calzaghe is ultimately cut.
There are those out there who probably hate the idea of fouling in boxing. Unfortunately, fouling is part of the sport and it plays a part in most boxing matches. The fighters that learn how to use it strategically, learning how to throw a timely rabbit punch, low blow or an elbow, often rattle their opponents and gain a measure of advantage in doing so. The same holds true for wrestling and clinching, as well as the use of the head as a kind of third glove.
The real question for Calzaghe, though, is how he’ll deal with adversity when it comes looking for him. Against Sakio Bika, a tough super middleweight who made it rough on the inside for Calzaghe, hitting him with stray elbows, rabbit punches and head butts, it seemed to fluster Calzaghe and put him off his stride. He looked so badly out of sorts at one point in the fight, he had to ask his trainer/father Enzo Calzaghe for help, not knowing what to do with Bika. Frantically, Calzaghe tried one thing after another, trying to jab, clinch punch with Bika. However, it wasn’t until he finally settled down late in the fight, and returned to boxing from the outside that he got control over the fight.
Even then, Calzaghe looked nervous and confused, and badly beaten around the face. Let me tell you, Bika is nothing compared to Hopkins when it comes to rough fighting. Hopkins, 43, if the need arises, and it probably will, he’ll turn the fight into something much more physical than Calzaghe has ever experienced before. The worse part, however, is that Calzaghe, accustomed to fighting in front of the friendly confines of his native Wales, won’t have a huge home crowd cheering encouragement like he’s used to.
I can see him getting disparate once Hopkins cuts him once or twice, turning him into a physical and mental wreck as he searches for some strategy to regain control over the fight once more. Calzaghe will likely easily control the fight on skills alone in the early going, for Hopkins, even in his prime, is no match for Calzaghe in a straight up boxing match. However, it’s Hopkins’ rough style of fighting, reminding me somewhat of the Philadelphia Flyers’ brand of physical hockey in the 80s that will ultimately be Calzaghe’s undoing.
This is something that Calzaghe hasn’t had to face, luckily for him since most of his opponents have been the European variety, most of whom generally keep it clean for the most part. Calzaghe hasn’t had to get down into the trenches with a rough Philadelphia fighter like Hopkins before. This will be a whole no experience for Calzaghe, a type of war that he has no real idea of how to fight. His brand of weaponry – blazing hand speed, movement and unorthodox punching angles – won’t be of use for him against Hopkins’ rough and tough style of fighting.
I’m guessing as soon as Hopkins draws blood, the fight will be for all practical purposes over. I can’t see Hopkins stopping Calzaghe, but he’ll do more than enough to grind out a decision while in the process of destroying the mind and spirit of Calzaghe along the way.
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